Improving National Blend of Models Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Long Time Series of Reforecasts and Precipitation Reanalyses. Part I: Methods

Hamill, Thomas M.; Stovern, Diana R.; Smith, Lesley L.

doi:10.1175/mwr-d-22-0308.1

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Improving National Blend of Models Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Long Time Series of Reforecasts and Precipitation Reanalyses. Part I: Methods

2023
By Hamill, Thomas M. ; Stovern, Diana R. ; Smith, Lesley L.
Source: Monthly Weather Review, 151(6), 1521-1534

[PDF-2.37 MB]

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Journal Title:

Monthly Weather Review
Personal Author:

Hamill, Thomas M. ; Stovern, Diana R. ; Smith, Lesley L.

Hamill, Thomas M. ; Stovern, Diana R. ; Smith, Lesley L. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) Less -
Description:

This article describes proposed revised methods for the statistical postprocessing of precipitation amount intended for the NOAA’s National Blend of Models using the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 data (GEFSv12). The procedure updates the previously established procedure of quantile mapping, weighting of sorted members, and dressing of the ensemble. The revised method leverages the long reforecast training dataset that has become available to improve quantile mapping of GEFSv12 data by eliminating the use of supplemental locations, that is, training data from other grid points. It establishes improved definitions of cumulative distributions through a spline-fitting approach. It provides updated algorithms for the weighting of sorted members based on closest-member histogram statistics, and it establishes an objective method for the dressing of the quantile-mapped, weighted ensemble. Verification statistics and case studies are provided in the accompanying article (Part II).
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Atmospheric Science
Source:

Monthly Weather Review, 151(6), 1521-1534
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0308.1
ISSN:

0027-0644;1520-0493;
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PDF
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American Meteorological Society
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Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4320101
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urn:sha256:beee3851be73af831dae747ea55b2ecd11d04679d6fa3e3122d8b7d1b4de3398
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53339/noaa_53339_DS1.pdf
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Improving National Blend of Models Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Long Time Series of Reforecasts and Precipitation Reanalyses. Part I: Methods

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