U.S. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Hall, Timothy M.; Kossin, James P.; Thompson, Terence; McMahon, James

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0342.1

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U.S. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

2021
By Hall, Timothy M. ; Kossin, James P. ; Thompson, Terence ; ...
Source: Journal of Climate, 34(4), 1321-1335

[PDF-3.83 MB]

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Hall, Timothy M. ; Kossin, James P. ; Thompson, Terence ; McMahon, James

Hall, Timothy M. ; Kossin, James P. ; Thompson, Terence ; McMahon, James Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:

We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in U.S. TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global–tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North Atlantic Ocean (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as “relative SST.” Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical U.S. TC activity as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically varied signal in U.S. coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf Coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity relative to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast and the U.S. East Coast will see little change.
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Atmospheric Science
Source:

Journal of Climate, 34(4), 1321-1335
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0342.1
ISSN:

0894-8755;1520-0442;
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PDF
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American Meteorological Society
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:0537d7f9ac83429a6d409d9e8fdacfcf970f52522c685fc72bf2341b120eb7e0
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U.S. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

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