Forecast Skill of the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2022

Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward; Bushuk, Mitchell; Massonnet, François; Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Meier, Walter N.; Bhatt, Uma S.

doi:10.1029/2022gl102531

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Forecast Skill of the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2022

2023
By Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward ; Bushuk, Mitchell ; Massonnet, François ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 50(6)

[PDF-1.67 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward ; Bushuk, Mitchell ; Massonnet, François ; Hamilton, Lawrence C. ; Bitz, Cecilia M. ; ... More +

Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward ; Bushuk, Mitchell ; Massonnet, François ; Hamilton, Lawrence C. ; Bitz, Cecilia M. ; Meier, Walter N. ; Bhatt, Uma S. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:

We assess the skill of forecasts of Arctic September sea ice in the Sea Ice Outlook over 2008–2022. The multi-model median June initialized forecast of September sea ice extent (SIE) is slightly more skilled (RMSE = 0.48 million km 2) than a damped anomaly forecast, but July and August initialized forecasts (RMSE = 0.52 and 0.36 million km 2 respectively) do not beat this benchmark. The skill of individual dynamical and statistical SIE forecasts is lower than the multi-model median forecast skill. Overall skill is lower than expected from retrospective forecasts. Several forecasts initialized in early September 2021 and 2022 imply physically improbable values. Spatial forecasts of sea ice concentration show multi-model forecast skill and an
Keywords:

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General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 50(6)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102531
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4310274 ; Grant no. NA16NWS4620043

Grant no. NA18OAR4310274 ; Grant no. NA16NWS4620043 Less -
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:d672f96aad8ded9b9e2d64433677b13283ae48189b86375adcdb87b47cb889fb
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52647/noaa_52647_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Machine readable version (XML)

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