Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations

Wilson, S.M.; Moore, J.W.; Ward, E.J.; Kinsel, C.W.; Anderson, J.H.; Buehrens, T.W.; Carr-Harris, C.N.; Cochran, P.C.; Davies, T.D.; Downen, M.R.; Godbout, L.

doi:10.1038/s41559-023-02057-1

i

Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations

Supporting Files

2023
By Wilson, S.M. ; Moore, J.W. ; Ward, E.J. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Nature Ecology & Evolution
Personal Author:

Wilson, S.M. ; Moore, J.W. ; Ward, E.J. ; Kinsel, C.W. ; Anderson, J.H. ; Buehrens, T.W. ; Carr-Harris, C.N. ; Cochran, P.C. ; Davies, T.D. ; Downen, M.R. ; Godbout, L.
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center)
Description:

Global climate change is shifting the timing of life-cycle events, sometimes resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and prey. Phenological shifts and subsequent mismatches may be consistent across populations, or they could vary unpredictably across populations within the same species. For anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), juveniles from thousands of locally adapted populations migrate from diverse freshwater habitats to the Pacific Ocean every year. Both the timing of freshwater migration and ocean arrival, relative to nearshore prey (phenological match/mismatch), can control marine survival and population dynamics. Here we examined phenological change of 66 populations across six anadromous Pacific salmon species throughout their range in western North America with the longest time series spanning 1951–2019. We show that different salmon species have different rates of phenological change but that there was substantial within-species variation that was not correlated with changing environmental conditions or geographic patterns. Moreover, outmigration phenologies have not tracked shifts in the timing of marine primary productivity, potentially increasing the frequency of future phenological mismatches. Understanding population responses to mismatches with prey are an important part of characterizing overall population-specific climate vulnerability.
Keywords:

Climatic Changes Fish Populations Pacific Salmon Predation (Biology) Climatic Changes Fish Populations Pacific Salmon Climate Change Climate Vulnerability Oncorhynchus Spp. Phenological Mismatch Phenological Shifts Population Dynamics Of Fish
Source:

Nat Ecol Evol 7, 852–861 (2023)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02057-1
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Accepted Manuscript
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:74e524ec3955eebdfb02ae28ce49c347d987acf8707a2f57309ee140eb487295
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52281/noaa_52281_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 794.61 KB ]

Supplemental media

Download pdf
Available dataset

Download xlsx

ON THIS PAGE

Details Supporting Files

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.