The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise
-
2022
-
-
Source: Nature Climate Change, 12(9), 808-813
[PDF-6.28 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Nature Climate Change
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Nature Climate Change, 12(9), 808-813
-
DOI:
-
ISSN:1758-678X;1758-6798;
-
Format:
-
Publisher:
-
Document Type:
-
License:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
