Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere

Park, In-Hong; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Min, Seung-Ki; Lee, Sang-Ki

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01728-y

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Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere

2023
By Park, In-Hong ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Cai, Wenju ; ...
Source: Nature Climate Change, 13(8), 816-822

[PDF-4.06 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Nature Climate Change
Personal Author:

Park, In-Hong ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Cai, Wenju ; Wang, Guojian ; Min, Seung-Ki ; ... More +

Park, In-Hong ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Cai, Wenju ; Wang, Guojian ; Min, Seung-Ki ; Lee, Sang-Ki Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic, and thus can be used to constrain future warming. Specifically, models that generate a present-day higher SSS in the North Atlantic subpolar region generate a greater uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the future, suppressing the greenhouse effect and resulting in slower warming, and vice versa in models with a present-day lower SSS. Emergent constraints based on the observed SSS greatly reduce the uncertainty of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature warming and accumulative carbon uptake by about 30% and 53%, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 scenario.
Keywords:

[+]

Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Source:

Nature Climate Change, 13(8), 816-822
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01728-y
ISSN:

1758-678X;1758-6798;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:9f43eff81e2bec301602f8feaf2040c233f2fd99f5272dd8b531635eab01852c
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52244/noaa_52244_DS1.pdf
File Type:

	Supplemental media	pdf
	World Ocean Atlas18	htm

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