Arctic Climate Extremes

Details

• Journal Title:
  Atmosphere
• Personal Author:
  Overland, James E.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
• Description:
  There are multiple extreme events underway in the Arctic that are beyond previous records: rain in Greenland, Alaska weather variability, and ecosystem reorganizations in the Barents and the northern Bering Sea associated with climate change and sea-ice loss. Such unique extreme events represent a philosophical challenge for interpretation, i.e., a lack of statistical basis, as well as important information for regional adaptation to climate change. These changes are affecting regional food security, human/wildlife health, cultural activities, and marine wildlife conservation. Twenty years ago, the Arctic was more resilient to climate change than now, as sea ice had a broader extent and was three times thicker than today. These new states cannot be assigned probabilities because one cannot a priori conceive of these states. They often have no historical analogues. A way forward for adaptation to future extremes is through scenario/narrative approaches; a recent development in climate change policy is through decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU).
• Keywords:
  Atmospheric Science Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
• Source:
  Atmosphere, 13(10), 1670
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101670
• ISSN:
  2073-4433
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  MDPI AG
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:b2f864cbd91312ef9eb2dd14a8db5883ba4c51326805f3f08b7969bac3bd865c
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/50529/noaa_50529_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.37 MB ]