Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Smith, D. M.; Scaife, A. A.; Hawkins, E.; Bilbao, R.; Boer, G. J.; Caian, M.; Caron, L.-P.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, T.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Doescher, R.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Hermanson, L.; Ishii, M.; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Koenigk, T.; Kushnir, Y.; Matei, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Menegoz, M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Mochizuki, T.; Müller, W. A.; Pohlmann, H.; Power, S.; Rixen, M.; Sospedra-Alfonso, R.; Tuma, M.; Wyser, K.; Yang, X.; Yeager, S.

doi:10.1029/2018GL079362

i

Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

2018
By Smith, D. M. ; Scaife, A. A. ; Hawkins, E. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Smith, D. M. ; Scaife, A. A. ; Hawkins, E. ; Bilbao, R. ; Boer, G. J. ; Caian, M. ; Caron, L.-P. ; Danabasoglu, G. ; Delworth, T. ; Doblas-Reyes, F. J. ; Doescher, R. ; Dunstone, N. J. ; Eade, R. ; Hermanson, L. ; Ishii, M. ; Kharin, V. ; Kimoto, M. ; Koenigk, T. ; Kushnir, Y. ; Matei, D. ; Meehl, G. A. ; Menegoz, M. ; Merryfield, W. J. ; Mochizuki, T. ; Müller, W. A. ; Pohlmann, H. ; Power, S. ; Rixen, M. ; Sospedra-Alfonso, R. ; Tuma, M. ; Wyser, K. ; Yang, X. ; Yeager, S.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5-year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.
Keywords:

Forecasting Global Warming Global Warming
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 45(21)( 11,895–11,903
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA13OAR4310138
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

CHORUS
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:678216832e5ee24b0114f8f8239651e231d1f5ff181058fcec4e24e153c48a2c
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48653/noaa_48653_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.42 MB ]

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