Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction

Director, H. M.; Raftery, A. E.; Bitz, C. M.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0185.1

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i

Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction

2017
By Director, H. M. ; Raftery, A. E. ; Bitz, C. M.
Source: Journal of Climate, 30(23), 9493-9510

[PDF-2.64 MB]

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Director, H. M. ; Raftery, A. E. ; Bitz, C. M.

Director, H. M. ; Raftery, A. E. ; Bitz, C. M. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

A new method, called contour shifting, is proposed for correcting the bias in forecasts of contours such as sea ice concentration above certain thresholds. Retrospective comparisons of observations and dynamical model forecasts are used to build a statistical spatiotemporal model of how predicted contours typically differ from observed contours. Forecasted contours from a dynamical model are then adjusted to correct for expected errors in their location. The statistical model changes over time to reflect the changing error patterns that result from reducing sea ice cover in the satellite era in both models and observations. For an evaluation period from 2001 to 2013, these bias-corrected forecasts are on average more accurate than the unadjusted dynamical model forecasts for all forecast months in the year at four different lead times. The total area, which is incorrectly categorized as containing sea ice or not, is reduced by 3.3 × 105 km2 (or 21.3%) on average. The root-mean-square error of forecasts of total sea ice area is also reduced for all lead times.
Keywords:

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Forecasting Sea Ice
Source:

Journal of Climate, 30(23), 9493-9510
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0185.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA15OAR4310161
Rights Information:

CC BY
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CHORUS
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:e976fdbbf03578f39f1efefd3661404f0321b2aabff9315756b2b6c60a51691d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48372/noaa_48372_DS1.pdf
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Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction

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