Contrasting climate velocity impacts in warm and cool locations show that effects of marine warming are worse in already warmer temperate waters

English, Philina A.; Ward, Eric J.; Rooper, Christopher N.; Forrest, Robyn E.; Rogers, Luke A.; Hunter, Karen L.; Edwards, Andrew M.; Connors, Brendan M.; Anderson, Sean C.

doi:10.1111/faf.12613

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Contrasting climate velocity impacts in warm and cool locations show that effects of marine warming are worse in already warmer temperate waters

2021
Datasets Available
By English, Philina A. ; Ward, Eric J. ; Rooper, Christopher N. ; ...
Source: Fish and Fisheries, 23, 239– 255 (2022)

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Alternative Title:

Contrasting local climate velocity impacts in warm and cool locations: a meta-analysis across 38 demersal fish species in the northeast Pacific
Journal Title:

Fish and Fisheries
Personal Author:

English, Philina A. ; Ward, Eric J. ; Rooper, Christopher N. ; Forrest, Robyn E. ; Rogers, Luke A. ; ... More +

English, Philina A. ; Ward, Eric J. ; Rooper, Christopher N. ; Forrest, Robyn E. ; Rogers, Luke A. ; Hunter, Karen L. ; Edwards, Andrew M. ; Connors, Brendan M. ; Anderson, Sean C. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center)

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center) Less -
Description:

Species responses to climate change are often measured at broad spatiotemporal scales, which can miss the fine-scale changes that are most relevant to conservation and fisheries management. We develop a scaleable geostatistical approach to assess how juvenile and adult fish distributions have been shaped by changes in bottom temperature and dissolved oxygen over a recent decade of warming in the northeast Pacific. Across 38 demersal fishes, biomass trends were associated negatively with warming and positively with dissolved oxygen, but when trends in both biomass and climate were converted to velocities—the speed and direction a population would have to move to maintain consistent conditions—the effect of temperature change differed depending on local conditions. In the warmest locations, warming velocities were associated with negative biotic velocities for 19 of 69 species-maturity combinations, and yet were almost always associated with stable or positive biotic velocities in the coolest locations (64 of 69). These spatially consistent biomass declines (negative biotic velocities) in the warmest locations and increases in cooler locations suggest a redistribution of species with the potential for new ecological and fisheries interactions. After controlling for temperature, the more spatially consistent effects of dissolved oxygen were often negative, suggesting a mechanism other than hypoxia avoidance—potentially changes in primary production. Our approach identifies the species and locations that are most sensitive to observed changes in the environment at any scale, thus facilitating future vulnerability assessments.
Keywords:

[+]

Climatic Changes Conservation Biology Dissolved Oxygen Fishery Management Groundfishes Water Biotic Velocity Context Dependence Spatio-temporal Distribution Models
Source:

Fish and Fisheries, 23, 239– 255 (2022)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12613
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Name as Subject:

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and ; Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, BC, Canada ; Northwest Fisheries Science Centre, ; National Marine Fisheries Service, ; National Oceanographic and Atmospheric ; ... More +

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and ; Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, BC, Canada ; Northwest Fisheries Science Centre, ; National Marine Fisheries Service, ; National Oceanographic and Atmospheric ; Administration, Seattle, WA, USA ; Department of Biology, University of ; Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada ; Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and ; Oceans Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada ; Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser ; University, Burnaby, BC, Canada Less -
License:

https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Rights Information:

CC0 Public Domain
Rights Statement:

© 2021 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Fish and Fisheries © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:6dc19a9b87c03b85533127f03da4df53bb8b1482f8d05151dc02001368f10562
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48074/noaa_48074_DS1.pdf
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