Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective

Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W.; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Llewellyn, Dagmar

doi:10.1002/2017GL073253

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Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective

2017
By Lehner, Flavio ; Wahl, Eugene R. ; Wood, Andrew W. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 44(9), 4124-4133

[PDF-2.69 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lehner, Flavio ; Wahl, Eugene R. ; Wood, Andrew W. ; Blatchford, Douglas B. ; Llewellyn, Dagmar

Lehner, Flavio ; Wahl, Eugene R. ; Wood, Andrew W. ; Blatchford, Douglas B. ; Llewellyn, Dagmar Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:

Recent decades have seen strong trends in hydroclimate over the American Southwest, with major river basins such as the Rio Grande exhibiting intermittent drought and declining runoff efficiencies. The extent to which these observed trends are exceptional has implications for current water management and seasonal streamflow forecasting practices. We present a new reconstruction of runoff ratio for the Upper Rio Grande basin back to 1571 C.E., which provides evidence that the declining trend in runoff ratio from the 1980s to present day is unprecedented in context of the last 445 years. Though runoff ratio is found to vary primarily in proportion to precipitation, the reconstructions suggest a secondary influence of temperature. In years of low precipitation, very low runoff ratios are made 2.5–3 times more likely by high temperatures. This temperature sensitivity appears to have strengthened in recent decades, implying future water management vulnerability should recent warming trends in the region continue.
Keywords:

[+]

Climatic Changes Paleoclimatology Streamflow Climate Variability General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics Paleoclimate Rio Grande Runoff Efficiency Streamflow Temperature
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 44(9), 4124-4133
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073253
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Rio Grande (Colo.-Mexico and Tex.)
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:44e17effd669352ca18e10dacc77b76d3907371fdd475a6d208d618c692479d0
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/45597/noaa_45597_DS1.pdf
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