The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
The Excessive Rainfall Outlook at the Weather Prediction Center: Operational Definition, Construction, and Real-Time Collaboration
-
2022
-
[PDF-3.20 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO), issued operationally from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), serves the Weather and Water Enterprise and decision makers with probabilistic guidance and messaging context out to three days for excessive rainfall leading to impacts, including flash flooding. Eighty-three percent of all flood-related damages and 39 percent of all flood-related fatalities reported in NWS Storm Data from 2010–2020 occurred in or near an ERO High Risk. Given that a High Risk is issued on only four percent of days, the presence of such risk can serve as an important step in raising situational awareness of a greater likelihood of a damaging and deadly flash flood day.
-
Keywords:
-
DOI:
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:Accepted Manuscript
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
