Climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef fail when global warming exceeds 3°C

Details

• Journal Title:
  Global Change Biology
• Personal Author:
  McWhorter, Jennifer K. ; Halloran, Paul R. ; Roff, George ; Skirving, William J. ; Mumby, Peter J.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CoRIS (Coral Reef Information System)
• Description:
  Increases in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of warm seawater temperatures are causing mass coral mortality events across the globe. Although, even during the most extensive bleaching events, some reefs escape exposure to severe stress, constituting potential refugia. Here, we identify present-day climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and project their persistence into the future. To do this, we apply semi-dynamic downscaling to an ensemble of climate projections released for the IPCC's recent sixth Assessment Report. We find that GBR locations experiencing the least thermal stress over the past 20 years have done so because of their oceanographic circumstance, which implies that longer-term persistence of climate refugia is feasible. Specifically, tidal and wind mixing of warm water away from the sea surface appears to provide relief from warming. However, on average this relative advantage only persists until global warming exceeds ~3°C.
• Keywords:
  Climatic Changes Coral Reefs And Islands Ocean Temperature Climatic Changes Coral Reefs And Islands Ocean Temperature Ecology Environmental Chemistry General Environmental Science Global And Planetary Change
• Source:
  Global Change Biology, 28(19), 5768-5780
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16323
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  Grant no. NA19NES4320002
• Place as Subject:
  Great Barrier Reef (Qld.)
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:442a2ec11d4674ebbbcd89623dda49514243826facc978899b3720433e74a47c
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/45441/noaa_45441_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.89 MB ]