Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures

Chan, Duo; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Wenchang; Huybers, Peter

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abg6931

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Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures

2021
By Chan, Duo ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Yang, Wenchang ; ...
Source: Sci Adv 7(26): abg6931

[PDF-1.43 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Science Advances
Personal Author:

Chan, Duo ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Yang, Wenchang ; Huybers, Peter

Chan, Duo ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Yang, Wenchang ; Huybers, Peter Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

Confidence in dynamical and statistical hurricane prediction is rooted in the skillful reproduction of hurricane frequency using sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, but an ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric simulation extending to the 1880s indicates model-data disagreements that exceed those expected from documented uncertainties. We apply recently developed corrections for biases in historical SSTs that lead to revisions in tropical to subtropical SST gradients by ±0.1°C. Revised atmospheric simulations have 20% adjustments in the decadal variations of hurricane frequency and become more consistent with observations. The improved simulation skill from revised SST estimates not only supports the utility of high-resolution atmospheric models for hurricane projections but also highlights the need for accurate estimates of past and future patterns of SST changes.
Keywords:

[+]

Cyclones Weather Forecasting Sea surface temperature
Source:

Sci Adv 7(26): abg6931
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg6931
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4310418 ; Grant no. NA180AR4320123

Grant no. NA18OAR4310418 ; Grant no. NA180AR4320123 Less -
Place as Subject:

Atlantic Ocean
Rights Information:

CC BY NC
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:a8f86ff9f130b520c6b8c0f28d658f6c64718fab811dbdf50279474fdc1fa80c
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/44726/noaa_44726_DS1.pdf
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