Arctic Sea-Ice Variability During the Instrumental Era

Brennan, M. Kathleen; Hakim, Gregory J.; Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward

doi:10.1029/2019GL086843

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Arctic Sea-Ice Variability During the Instrumental Era

2020
By Brennan, M. Kathleen ; Hakim, Gregory J. ; Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward
Source: Geophysical Research Letters 47(7): e2019GL086843

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Brennan, M. Kathleen ; Hakim, Gregory J. ; Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward

Brennan, M. Kathleen ; Hakim, Gregory J. ; Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) has declined drastically in recent decades, yet its evolution prior to the satellite era is highly uncertain. Studies using SIE observations find little variability prior to the 1970s; however, these reconstructions are based on limited data, especially prior to the 1950s. We use ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation of surface air temperature observations with Last Millennium climate model simulations to create a fully gridded Arctic sea-ice concentration reconstruction from 1850 to 2018 and investigate the evolution of Arctic SIE during this period. We find a decline of ∼1.25×106 km2 during the early 20th-century warming (1910–1940). The 25-year trends during this period are ∼33–38% smaller than the satellite era (1979–2018) but almost twice as large as previous estimates. Additionally, we find that variability of SIE on decadal timescales prior to the satellite era is ∼40% greater than previously estimated.
Keywords:

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Climatology Sea Ice
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters 47(7): e2019GL086843
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086843
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4310422 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310274

Grant no. NA18OAR4310422 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310274 Less -
Place as Subject:

Arctic Ocean
Rights Information:

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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:a40453fbe522506b7efdc5f74482582350d8ffc63c4d580d9ca757edb29bf839
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/44697/noaa_44697_DS1.pdf
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	Supplemental text	pdf
	Available dataset	htm

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