The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario

Li, Zhi; Gao, Shang; Chen, Mengye; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Liu, Changhai; Prein, Andreas F.; Hong, Yang

doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00409-6

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The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario

2022
By Li, Zhi ; Gao, Shang ; Chen, Mengye ; ...
Source: Commun Earth Environ 3, 86

[PDF-2.15 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Communications Earth & Environment
Personal Author:

Li, Zhi ; Gao, Shang ; Chen, Mengye ; Gourley, Jonathan J. ; Liu, Changhai ; ... More +

Li, Zhi ; Gao, Shang ; Chen, Mengye ; Gourley, Jonathan J. ; Liu, Changhai ; Prein, Andreas F. ; Hong, Yang Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Flash floods are largely driven by high rainfall rates in convective storms that are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warmer climate in the future. However, quantifying the changes in future flood flashiness is challenging due to the lack of high-resolution climate simulations. Here we use outputs from a continental convective-permitting numerical weather model at 4-km and hourly resolution and force a numerical hydrologic model at a continental scale to depict such change. As results indicate, US floods are becoming 7.9% flashier by the end of the century assuming a high-emissions scenario. The Southwest (+10.5%) has the greatest increase in flashiness among historical flash flood hot spots, and the central US (+8.6%) is emerging as a new flash flood hot spot. Additionally, future flash flood-prone frontiers are advancing northwards. This study calls on implementing climate-resilient mitigation measures for emerging flash flood hot spots.
Keywords:

[+]

Climatic Changes Floods Hydrology
Source:

Commun Earth Environ 3, 86
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00409-6
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:3aed89d6eb2adb4cd52c69e1f0035b35575ba50c4f3fa365732d959a69c24ca6
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/39123/noaa_39123_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Available dataset (Climate simulation)

htm

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