Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System Version 2

Miller, Douglas E.; Wang, Zhuo

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0389.1

i

Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System Version 2

2019
By Miller, Douglas E. ; Wang, Zhuo

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Miller, Douglas E. ; Wang, Zhuo
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)
Description:

The representation of ENSO and NAO are examined in the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), reforecasts with a focus on the physical processes related to teleconnections and predictability. CFSv2 predicts ENSO well, but an eastward shift of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evident. Although it appears minor on the global scale, the shift in convection and the large-scale wave train affects the model prediction of regional climate. In contrast, NAO is predicted poorly.
Keywords:

ENSO Forecast Verification/Skill North Atlantic Oscillation Seasonal Forecasting
Source:

Journal of Climate, 32(4), 1307-1326
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0389.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310221
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:63527acb0bf0dda08642462a41f4b50092164e373ccc5c1d7033280ed01167ca
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/36801/noaa_36801_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 9.08 MB ]

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