Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics

Details

• Journal Title:
  Weather and Forecasting
• Personal Author:
  Krocak, Makenzie J. ; Flournoy, Matthew D. ; Brooks, Harold E.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)
• Description:
  During tornadic events, over one-half of false alarms occur after the last tornado of the day decays, and false alarms are 2 times as likely to be issued during this time as before the first tornado forms. These results indicate that forecasters may be better “primed” (or more prepared) to issue warnings on middle and last tornadoes of the day and must overcome a higher threshold to warn on the first tornado of the day. To overcome this challenge, using kinematic environmental characteristics and intermediate products on the watch-to-warning scale may help.
• Keywords:
  Forecast Verification/Skill Forecasting Operational Forecasting
• Source:
  Weather and Forecasting, 36(5) p.1779-1784
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0097.1
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  Grant no. NA11OAR4320072
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:078db6740a3227f13c82099659fc988ed4a6ce6245881e094a9bc64833070590
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/33995/noaa_33995_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 893.78 KB ]