Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics

Krocak, Makenzie J.; Flournoy, Matthew D.; Brooks, Harold E.

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-21-0097.1

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Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics

2021
By Krocak, Makenzie J. ; Flournoy, Matthew D. ; Brooks, Harold E.
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 36(5) p.1779-1784

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Krocak, Makenzie J. ; Flournoy, Matthew D. ; Brooks, Harold E.

Krocak, Makenzie J. ; Flournoy, Matthew D. ; Brooks, Harold E. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Less -
Description:

During tornadic events, over one-half of false alarms occur after the last tornado of the day decays, and false alarms are 2 times as likely to be issued during this time as before the first tornado forms. These results indicate that forecasters may be better “primed” (or more prepared) to issue warnings on middle and last tornadoes of the day and must overcome a higher threshold to warn on the first tornado of the day. To overcome this challenge, using kinematic environmental characteristics and intermediate products on the watch-to-warning scale may help.
Keywords:

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Forecast Verification/Skill Forecasting Operational Forecasting
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 36(5) p.1779-1784
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0097.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA11OAR4320072
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:078db6740a3227f13c82099659fc988ed4a6ce6245881e094a9bc64833070590
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/33995/noaa_33995_DS1.pdf
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Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics

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