Why the Brier Score is a "proper" scoring system

Sangster, Wayne E.

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Why the Brier Score is a "proper" scoring system

Public Domain

1986
By Sangster, Wayne E.
Series: Central Region Technical attachment 86-3

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Personal Author:

Sangster, Wayne E.
Corporate Authors:

United States. National Weather Service. Central Region
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CR (Central Region)
Description:

The question was once asked of me, "Why square anything?", made in reference to the Brier Score (BS) used in Probability of Precipitation forecast verification. There is a fairly simple way of showing how the Brier Score works and why it has been used all these years. The following development is similar to that given in the explanation of why the BS is a "proper" scoring system according to Murphy and Epstein (1967).
Keywords:

Meteorology Numerical Weather Forecasting Statistics Numerical Weather Forecasting
Series:

Central Region Technical attachment ; 86-3
Document Type:

Technical Attachment
Rights Information:

Public domain
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:3ae9562810d20ee9096dd5a0f31638d5cbb1d24777241cae3cf00fa5e63f247a
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/33728/noaa_33728_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.02 MB ]

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