Exploring The Impacts Of Climate And Policy Changes On Coastal Community Resilience: Simulating Alternative Future Scenarios

Mills, Alexis K.; Bolte, John P.; Ruggiero, Peter; Serafin, Katherine A.; Lipiec, Eva; Corcoran, Patrick; Stevenson, John; Zanocco, Chad; Lach, Denise

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.022

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Exploring The Impacts Of Climate And Policy Changes On Coastal Community Resilience: Simulating Alternative Future Scenarios

2018
By Mills, Alexis K. ; Bolte, John P. ; Ruggiero, Peter ; ...
Source: Environmental Modelling & Software 109: 80-92

[PDF-1.39 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Environmental Modelling & Software
Personal Author:

Mills, Alexis K. ; Bolte, John P. ; Ruggiero, Peter ; Serafin, Katherine A. ; Lipiec, Eva ; ... More +

Mills, Alexis K. ; Bolte, John P. ; Ruggiero, Peter ; Serafin, Katherine A. ; Lipiec, Eva ; Corcoran, Patrick ; Stevenson, John ; Zanocco, Chad ; Lach, Denise Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

Sea Grant ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

Sea Grant ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Sea Grant Program:

ORESU (Oregon Sea Grant)
Description:

Coupled models of coastal hazards, ecosystems, socioeconomics, and landscape management in conjunction with alternative scenario analysis provide tools that can allow decision-makers to explore effects of policy decisions under uncertain futures. Here, we describe the development and assessment of a set of model-based alternative future scenarios examining climate and population driven landscape dynamics for a coastal region in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. These scenarios incorporated coupled spatiotemporal models of climate and coastal hazards, population and development, and policy and assessed a variety of landscape metrics for each scenario. Coastal flooding and erosion were probabilistically simulated using 99 future 95-year climate scenarios. Five policy scenarios were iteratively co-developed by researchers and stakeholders in Tillamook County, Oregon. Results suggest that both climate change and management decisions have a significant impact across the landscape, and can potentially impact geographic regions at different magnitudes and timescales.
Keywords:

[+]

Climate Change Adaptation Planning Coastal Community Resilience Coastal Flooding Coastal Hazards Envision
Source:

Environmental Modelling & Software 109: 80-92
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.022
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA12OAR4310109 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310243 ; Grant no. NA10OAR4310218 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310145

Grant no. NA12OAR4310109 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310243 ; Grant no. NA10OAR4310218 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310145 Less -
Place as Subject:

Tillamook county
Rights Information:

Accepted Manuscript
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:b4c236ac84463476aeae7399c83b803f2920610634f1a9c812a4b16f450ce8b5
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/33114/noaa_33114_DS1.pdf
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Exploring The Impacts Of Climate And Policy Changes On Coastal Community Resilience: Simulating Alternative Future Scenarios

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