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Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming
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2020
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Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(27), 15504-15510
[PDF-1.32 MB]
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Journal Title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Description:Earth system models (ESMs) project that global warming suppresses biological productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean
as increasing ocean surface buoyancy suppresses two physical
drivers of nutrient supply: vertical mixing and meridional circulation. However, the quantitative sensitivity of productivity to
surface buoyancy is uncertain and the relative importance of the
physical drivers is unknown. Here, we present a simple predictive theory of how mixing, circulation, and productivity respond
to increasing surface buoyancy in 21st-century global warming
scenarios. With parameters constrained by observations, the theory suggests that the reduced northward nutrient transport,
owing to a slower ocean circulation, explains the majority of the
reduced productivity in a warmer climate. The theory also informs
present-day biases in a set of ESM simulations as well as the
physical underpinnings of their 21st-century projections. Hence,
this theoretical understanding can facilitate the development of
improved 21st-century projections of marine biogeochemistry and
ecosystems.
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Source:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(27), 15504-15510
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