A second evaluation of aviation-impact variables generated by the Eta model
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A second evaluation of aviation-impact variables generated by the Eta model

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  • Description:
    This paper describes the second evaluation of aviation-impact variables derived from the Eta model analyses and forecasts. This is part of an ongoing program at the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Weather Development Program. The evaluation was conducted using an independent verification dataset obtained from the Storm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology Fronts Experiment Systems Test (STORM-FEST), from 1 February through 15 March 1992. Eta produced analyses and forecasts at specific station locations for verification, for upper-air, surface, and profiler stations, as well as at pilot report (PIREP) locations. In general, analyses and forecasts of winds and temperatures aloft were found to be within expected rawinsonde errors. There were some exceptions to this, where large errors were associated with particular meteorological phenomena (e.g., a mesoscale convective system). In addition, Eta does not address the problem of multiple freezing levels. Eta appears to have difficulty with moisture, particularly, a bias that increases with time. This was shown to affect both the cloud amount and ceiling diagnoses, as well as the precipitation amounts and occurrence. Surface variable analyses and forecasts were generally good, with most variables beating persistence. The cloud amount diagnosis statistics between scattered and broken had improved some from the first evaluation, as did the precipitation amount. Exercise 2 (E2) was the first attempt at diagnosing turbulence and icing. Eta did the best when compared to PIREPS directly, using the diagnostic turbulent kinetic energy algorithm, DTF2, for turbulence and the modified National Center for Atmospheric Research/Research Applications Program algorithm for icing.
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