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Are Multiseasonal Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers Possible?
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2021
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Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 48(17)
[PDF-4.24 MB]
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Journal Title:Geophysical Research Letters
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Description:Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62924:grl62924-math-0001 of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur in less than 15urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62924:grl62924-math-0002 of wintertime. ARs are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme precipitation hazards when making landfall. While most prevailing research has focused on the subseasonal (urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62924:grl62924-math-00035 weeks) prediction of ARs, only limited efforts have been made for AR forecasts on multiseasonal timescales (urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62924:grl62924-math-00043 months) that are crucial for water resource management and disaster preparedness. Through the analysis of reanalysis data and retrospective predictions from a new seasonal-to-decadal forecast system, this research shows the existing potential of multiseasonal AR frequency forecasts with predictive skills 9 months in advance. Additional analysis explores the dominant predictability sources and challenges for multiseasonal AR prediction.
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Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 48(17)
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