Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998–2018)

Details

• Journal Title:
  Environmental Science & Technology
• Personal Author:
  Hammer, Melanie S. ; van Donkelaar, Aaron ; Li, Chi ; Lyapustin, Alexei ; Sayer, Andrew M. ; Hsu, N. Christina ; Levy, Robert C. ; Garay, Michael J. ; Kalashnikova, Olga V. ; Kahn, Ralph A. ; Brauer, Michael ; Apte, Joshua S. ; Henze, Daven K. ; Zhang, Li ; Zhang, Qiang ; Ford, Bonne ; Pierce, Jeffrey R. ; Martin, Randall V.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
• Description:
  Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998–2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based monitoring. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) from advanced satellite products including finer resolution, increased global coverage, and improved long-term stability are combined and related to surface PM2.5 concentrations using geophysical relationships between surface PM2.5 and AOD simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with updated algorithms. The resultant annual mean geophysical PM2.5 estimates are highly consistent with globally distributed ground monitors (R2 = 0.81; slope = 0.90). Geographically weighted regression is applied to the geophysical PM2.5 estimates to predict and account for the residual bias with PM2.5 monitors, yielding even higher cross validated agreement (R2 = 0.90–0.92; slope = 0.90–0.97) with ground monitors and improved agreement compared to all earlier global estimates. The consistent long-term satellite AOD and simulation enable trend assessment over a 21 year period, identifying significant trends for eastern North America (−0.28 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), Europe (−0.15 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), India (1.13 ± 0.15 μg/m3/yr), and globally (0.04 ± 0.02 μg/m3/yr). The positive trend (2.44 ± 0.44 μg/m3/yr) for India over 2005–2013 and the negative trend (−3.37 ± 0.38 μg/m3/yr) for China over 2011–2018 are remarkable, with implications for the health of billions of people.
• Keywords:
  Estimates Forecasting Particulate Matter Particulate Matter
• Source:
  Environmental Science & Technology, 54(13)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c01764
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:ce4bd6da6a0cf0e053ceeea83d7e8ae0254aeb53b43e258907b7eb6955f440e7
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/31967/noaa_31967_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 7.56 MB ]