Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Notz, Dirk; Community, SIMIP

doi:10.1029/2019GL086749

i

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Supporting Files

2020
By Notz, Dirk ; Community, SIMIP

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Notz, Dirk ; Community, SIMIP
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CICSP (Cooperative Institute for Climate Science) ; JISAO (Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean)
Description:

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area <1 x 10(6) km(2)) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 examined here.
Keywords:

Climate Climate Models CMIP6 Geology Internal Variability Model Evaluation Projections Sea Ice Simulations Thickness Climate Models Internal Variability Model Evaluation Sea Ice
Source:

GeophysicalResearch Letters,47, e2019GL086749.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4310274
Place as Subject:

Arctic regions
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:70fb743e42b3c2cf5a0280d3db149cd759857481986816f5fd15ef5e6786c47d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29934/noaa_29934_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.21 MB ]

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