Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part I: Observed changes, detection and attribution

Lee, Tsz-Cheung; Knutson, Thomas R.; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Ying, Ming; Cha, Eun Jeong

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.001

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Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part I: Observed changes, detection and attribution

2020
By Lee, Tsz-Cheung ; Knutson, Thomas R. ; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki ; ...
Source: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 9 (1) 10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.001

[PDF-2.48 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Personal Author:

Lee, Tsz-Cheung ; Knutson, Thomas R. ; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki ; Ying, Ming ; Cha, Eun Jeong

Lee, Tsz-Cheung ; Knutson, Thomas R. ; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki ; Ying, Ming ; Cha, Eun Jeong Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Published findings on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones (TCs) in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region are assessed. Wefocus on observed TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, including frequency, intensity, precipitation, track pattern, and stormsurge. Results from an updated survey of impacts of past TC activity on various Members of the Typhoon Committee are also reported. ExistingTC datasets continue to show substantial interdecadal variations in basin-wide TC frequency and intensity in the WNP. There has beenencouraging progress in improving the consensus between different datasets concerning intensity trends. A statistically significant northwest-ward shift in WNP TC tracks since the 1980s has been documented. There is low-to-medium confidence in a detectable poleward shift since the1940s in the average latitude where TCs reach their peak intensity in the WNP. A worsening of storm inundation levels is believed to beoccurring due to sea level rise-due in part to anthropogenic influence-assuming all other factors equal. However, we are not aware that any TCclimate change signal has been convincingly detected in WNP sea level extremes data. We also consider detection and attribution of observedchanges based on an alternative Type II error avoidance perspective.
Keywords:

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Climate Change Tropical Cyclones Typhoon Committee Typhoons
Source:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 9 (1) 10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.001
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.001
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Western North Pacific
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:5e72cd337a76dabf2bd942873d9e05648ddda5e94fb25895eba6f6383985fb2b
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29922/noaa_29922_DS1.pdf
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