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Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections
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2020
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Source: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 9(2) 2020.
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Journal Title:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
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NOAA Program & Office:
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Description:This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon CommitteeRegion under climate change scenarios. This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2C anthropogenic globalwarming scenario for the western North Pacific (WNP) following the approach of a WMO Task Team, together with other reported findings forthis region. For projections of TC genesis/frequency, most models suggest a reduction of TC frequency, but an increase in the proportion of veryintense TCs over the WNP in the future. However, some individual studies project an increase in WNP TC frequency. Most studies agree on aprojected increase of WNP TC intensity over the 21st century. All available projections for TC related precipitation in the WNP indicate anincrease in TC related precipitation rate in a warmer climate. Anthropogenic warming may also lead to changes in TC prevailing tracks. Afurther increase in storm surge risk may result from increases in TC intensity. The most confident aspect of forced anthropogenic change in TCinundation risk derives from the highly confident expectation of further sea level rise, which we expect will exacerbate storm inundation risk incoastal regions, assuming all other factors equal.
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Source:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 9(2) 2020.
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Rights Information:CC BY-NC-ND
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Compliance:Submitted
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