Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150-Year, and Longer Simulations

Dunne, John P.; Winton, Michael; Bacmeister, Julio; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Gettelman, Andrew; Golaz, Jean‐Christophe; Hannay, Cecile; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Krasting, John P.; Leung, L. Ruby; Nazarenko, Larissa; Sentman, Lori T.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Wolfe, Jonathan D.

doi:10.1029/2020GL088852

i

Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150-Year, and Longer Simulations

2020
By Dunne, John P. ; Winton, Michael ; Bacmeister, Julio ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Dunne, John P. ; Winton, Michael ; Bacmeister, Julio ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Gettelman, Andrew ; Golaz, Jean‐Christophe ; Hannay, Cecile ; Schmidt, Gavin A. ; Krasting, John P. ; Leung, L. Ruby ; Nazarenko, Larissa ; Sentman, Lori T. ; Stouffer, Ronald J. ; Wolfe, Jonathan D.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (>= 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO(2)simulations with shorter (150- and 300-year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and slab ocean models (SOMs). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8% +/- 13%) and long (-14% +/- 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2% +/- 14%) and long (-8% +/- 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4% +/- 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation U.S. models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6 degrees C to 5.3 degrees C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2 degrees C to 7.0 degrees C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.
Keywords:

Climate Model Climate Sensitivity Co2 Concentration Dependence Formulation Geology Increase Part I Patterns Radiative Feedbacks Surface-temperature-change System Model Variability Climate Model Climate Sensitivity Co2 Concentration Radiative Feedbacks System Model
Source:

GeophysicalResearch Letters,47, e2020GL088852.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088852
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:4af48e15e7c9cdc8f4d98452a780796f447ec4429430a68697b691d18093ec60
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29903/noaa_29903_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 648.61 KB ]

ON THIS PAGE

Details

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.