Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

Zhang, Tuantuan; Huang, Bohua; Yang, Song; Laohalertchai, Charoon

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3874-8

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Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

2018
By Zhang, Tuantuan ; Huang, Bohua ; Yang, Song ; ...
Source: Clim Dyn 50, 4263–4284 (2018).

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Journal Title:

Climate Dynamics
Personal Author:

Zhang, Tuantuan ; Huang, Bohua ; Yang, Song ; Laohalertchai, Charoon

Zhang, Tuantuan ; Huang, Bohua ; Yang, Song ; Laohalertchai, Charoon Less -
Corporate Authors:

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.)

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.) Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

The seasonal dependence of the prediction skill of 850-hPa monthly zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain is examined using the ensemble reforecasts for 1983–2010 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. According to a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis, the most predictable patterns of atmospheric low-level circulation are associated with the developing and maturing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFSv2 is capable of predicting these ENSO-related patterns up to 9-months in advance for all months, except for May–June when the effect of the spring barrier is strong. The other predictable climate processes associated with the low-level atmospheric circulation are more seasonally dependent. For winter and spring, the second most predictable patterns are associated with the ENSO decaying phase. Within these seasons, the monthly evolution of the predictable patterns is characterized by a southward shift of westerly wind anomalies, generated by the interaction between the annual cycle and the ENSO signals (i.e., the combination-mode). In general, the CFSv2 hindcast well predicts these patterns at least 5 months in advance for spring, while shows much lower skills for winter months. In summer, the second predictable patterns are associated with the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon (i.e., the WNP anticyclone/cyclone) in short leads while associated with ENSO in longer leads (after 4-month lead). The second predictable patterns in fall are mainly associated with tropical Indian Ocean Dipole, which can be predicted 3 months in advance.
Keywords:

[+]

Dependence Forecasting Most Predictable Patterns NCEP CFSv2 Hindcasts Seasonal Dependence
Source:

Clim Dyn 50, 4263–4284 (2018).
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3874-8
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310160
Rights Information:

CC BY
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:e27fe21095b1f80b6f81f19104a0b1a268e340c8b4dda4adee42ef89bf3b7b42
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28435/noaa_28435_DS1.pdf
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Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

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