Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework

Ilyina, T.; Li, H.; Spring, A.; Müller, W. A.; Bopp, L.; Chikamoto, M. O.; Danabasoglu, G.; Dobrynin, M.; Dunne, J.; Fransner, F.; Friedlingstein, P.; Lee, W.; Lovenduski, N. S.; Merryfield, W.J.; Mignot, J.; Park, J.Y.; Séférian, R.; Sospedra‐Alfonso, R.; Watanabe, M.; Yeager, S.

doi:10.1029/2020GL090695

Advanced Search

Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

Advanced Search
Custom Query

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

i

Notice

More info in Supporting Files section

Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework

2020
By Ilyina, T. ; Li, H. ; Spring, A. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL090695.

[PDF-2.36 MB]

Details Supporting Files You May Also Like

Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Ilyina, T. ; Li, H. ; Spring, A. ; Müller, W. A. ; Bopp, L. ; ... More +

Ilyina, T. ; Li, H. ; Spring, A. ; Müller, W. A. ; Bopp, L. ; Chikamoto, M. O. ; Danabasoglu, G. ; Dobrynin, M. ; Dunne, J. ; Fransner, F. ; Friedlingstein, P. ; Lee, W. ; Lovenduski, N. S. ; Merryfield, W.J. ; Mignot, J. ; Park, J.Y. ; Séférian, R. ; Sospedra‐Alfonso, R. ; Watanabe, M. ; Yeager, S. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Inter‐annual to decadal variability in the strength of the land and ocean carbon sinks impede accurate predictions of year‐to‐year atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate. Such information is crucial to verify the effectiveness of fossil fuel emissions reduction measures. Using a multi‐model framework comprising prediction systems initialized by the observed state of the physical climate, we find a predictive skill for the global ocean carbon sink of up to 6 years for some models. Longer regional predictability horizons are found across single models. On land, a predictive skill of up to 2 years is primarily maintained in the tropics and extra‐tropics enabled by the initialization of the physical climate. We further show that anomalies of atmospheric CO2 growth rate inferred from natural variations of the land and ocean carbon sinks are predictable at lead time of 2 years and the skill is limited by the land carbon sink predictability horizon.
Content Notes:

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is a major facility sponsored by the US National Science Foundation (NSF)
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric CO2 Carbon Sinks Marine Ecosystem Tipping Points Initiative Predictions
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL090695.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090695
ISSN:

0094-8276;e-1944-8007;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Wiley
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977 ; NOAA’s Marine Ecosystem Tipping Points Initiative

Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977 ; NOAA’s Marine Ecosystem Tipping Points Initiative Less -
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Rights Statement:

© 2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:6817d86425a47f1ae2c2313162b9849961415caeb89d6083df2b08a54a0cbdf7
Download URL:

https://staging-noaa.cdc.gov/view/noaa/29712/noaa_29712_DS1.pdf
File Type:

	Supplemental text	pdf
	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology	htm

More +