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Support for the Cone of Uncertainty Social and Behavioral Science Research Project
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2020
[PDF-1.37 MB]
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Description:The NOAA National Hurricane Center’s (NHC’s) tropical cyclone forecast track graphic, commonly referred to as the cone of uncertainty (and referred to in this report as the “Cone Graphic”), was introduced to the NHC website in 2002 (E. Rappaport, personal communication, October 24, 2018). The Cone Graphic (see sample in Figure 1) represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown on the graphic) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a five-year sample fall within the circle. This means the size of the Cone Graphic is not dynamic on a storm-by-storm basis, or even a forecast-by-forecast basis, and reflects the amount of error (forecast vs. actual path) averaged for all events over the previous five years.
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