Seasonal Forecasts of Major Hurricanes and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using a High-Resolution GFDL Coupled Climate Model

Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Richard; Underwood, Seth; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Wei; Lin, Shian-Jiann

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0233.1

i

Seasonal Forecasts of Major Hurricanes and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using a High-Resolution GFDL Coupled Climate Model

2016
By Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Villarini, Gabriele
Source Journal of Climate, 29(22), 7977-7989

Details

Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Villarini, Gabriele ; Delworth, Thomas L. ; Gudgel, Richard ; Underwood, Seth ; Yang, Xiaosong ; Zhang, Wei ; Lin, Shian-Jiann
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)
Description:

Skillful seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC; wind speed ≥17.5 m s−1) activity is challenging, even more so when the focus is on major hurricanes (wind speed ≥49.4 m s−1), the most intense hurricanes (category 4 and 5; wind speed ≥58.1 m s–1), and landfalling TCs. This study shows that a 25-km-resolution global climate model High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR) developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has improved skill in predicting the frequencies of major hurricanes and category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic as well as landfalling TCs over the United States and Caribbean islands a few months in advance, relative to its 50-km-resolution predecessor climate model (FLOR). HiFLOR also shows significant skill in predicting category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the western North Pacific and eastern North Pacific, while both models show comparable skills in predicting basin-total and landfalling TC frequency in the basins. The improved skillful forecasts of basin-total TCs, major hurricanes, and category 4 and 5 hurricane activity in the North Atlantic by HiFLOR are obtained mainly by improved representation of the TCs and their response to climate from the increased horizontal resolution rather than by improvements in large-scale parameters.
Keywords:
Source:

Journal of Climate, 29(22), 7977-7989
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0233.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4830101
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29619/noaa_29619_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.10 MB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:627100e06f971219259a27c1992a5d24b545ebf70c50d34692bc41a8404934ce

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