A Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes (SPOTter) in the Contiguous United States Based on the Leading Patterns of Large-Scale Atmospheric Anomalies

Lee, Sang-Ki; Lopez, Hosmay; Kim, Dongmin; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Kumar, Arun

doi:10.1175/MWR-D-20-0223.1

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A Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes (SPOTter) in the Contiguous United States Based on the Leading Patterns of Large-Scale Atmospheric Anomalies

2021
By Lee, Sang-Ki ; Lopez, Hosmay ; Kim, Dongmin ; ...
Source: Monthly Weather Review, 149(4), 901-919

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Journal Title:

Monthly Weather Review
Personal Author:

Lee, Sang-Ki ; Lopez, Hosmay ; Kim, Dongmin ; Wittenberg, Andrew T. ; Kumar, Arun

Lee, Sang-Ki ; Lopez, Hosmay ; Kim, Dongmin ; Wittenberg, Andrew T. ; Kumar, Arun Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; ... More +

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Less -
Description:

This study presents an experimental model for Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes (SPOTter) in the contiguous United States for March, April, and May and evaluates its forecast skill. This forecast model uses the leading empirical orthogonal function modes of regional variability in tornadic environmental parameters (i.e., low-level vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy), derived from the NCEP Coupled Forecast System, version 2, as the primary predictors. A multiple linear regression is applied to the predicted modes of tornadic environmental parameters to estimate U.S. tornado activity, which is presented as the probability for above-, near-, and below-normal categories. The initial forecast is carried out in late February for March–April U.S. tornado activity and then is updated in late March for April–May activity. A series of reforecast skill tests, including the jackknife cross-validation test, shows that the probabilistic reforecast is overall skillful for predicting the above- and below-normal area-averaged activity in the contiguous United States for the target months of both March–April and April–May. The forecast model also successfully reforecasts the 2011 super-tornado-outbreak season and the other three most active U.S. tornado seasons in 1982, 1991, and 2008, and thus it may be suitable for an operational use for predicting future active and inactive U.S. tornado seasons. However, additional tests show that the regional reforecast is skillful for March–April activity only in the Ohio Valley and South and for April–May activity only in the Southeast and Upper Midwest. These and other limitations of the current model, along with the future advances needed to improve the U.S. regional-scale tornado forecast, are discussed.
Keywords:

[+]

Tornadoes Weather Forecasting Climate Prediction Convective Storms Forecast Verification/Skill Probability Forecasts/Models/Distribution Seasonal Forecasting
Source:

Monthly Weather Review, 149(4), 901-919
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0223.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA19OAR4310282
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:cd2cbae60325d742a2e7b9bf55c07bbb34b4772e4afe71503ca28c950fb2a9fe
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29041/noaa_29041_DS1.pdf
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A Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes (SPOTter) in the Contiguous United States Based on the Leading Patterns of Large-Scale Atmospheric Anomalies

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