Oil spill forecast assessment using Fractions Skill Score

Simecek-Beatty, Debra; Lehr, William J.

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112041

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Oil spill forecast assessment using Fractions Skill Score

2021
By Simecek-Beatty, Debra ; Lehr, William J.
Source: Mar Pollut Bull. 2021 Jan 28;164:112041

[PDF-1.76 MB]

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Journal Title:

Marine Pollution Bulletin
Personal Author:

Simecek-Beatty, Debra ; Lehr, William J.

Simecek-Beatty, Debra ; Lehr, William J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NOS (National Ocean Service) ; DWH (Deepwater Horizon)

NOS (National Ocean Service) ; DWH (Deepwater Horizon) Less -
Description:

In the event of an oil spill, emergency responders must quickly deploy cleanup and protection equipment using guidance provided by a forecast trajectory. Forecasting the location of the surface oil over time is standard practice; however, current performance metrics used for assessing the quality of the spill forecast lack both an appropriate numerical model accuracy score and specification of the expected spatial resolution limit for useful forecast information. This paper adapts the Fractions Skill Score method, commonly used in weather forecasting, to oil forecasting. A subset of satellite images and trajectory forecasts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill are used as an example of the method.
Keywords:

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Fractography Modeling Oil Spills Skill Scores Verification
Source:

Mar Pollut Bull. 2021 Jan 28;164:112041
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112041
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC33517090
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Public Domain
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:8c150cd4594dc64ecf0bcfb5bab08060f1277577d303e8d361a263a7b379c888
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28478/noaa_28478_DS1.pdf
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Oil spill forecast assessment using Fractions Skill Score

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