National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion

Stumpf, Gregory J.; Gerard, Alan E.

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-20-0159.1

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i

National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion

2021
By Stumpf, Gregory J. ; Gerard, Alan E.
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 36, 1-58

[PDF-2.62 MB]

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Stumpf, Gregory J. ; Gerard, Alan E.

Stumpf, Gregory J. ; Gerard, Alan E. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; STI (Office of Science and Technology Integration) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; STI (Office of Science and Technology Integration) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Threats-in-Motion (TIM) is a warning generation approach that would enable the NWS to advance severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings from the current static polygon system to continuously updating polygons that move forward with a storm. This concept is proposed as a first stage for implementation of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) paradigm, which eventually aims to deliver rapidly updating probabilistic hazard information alongside NWS warnings, watches, and other products. With TIM, a warning polygon is attached to the threat and moves forward along with it. This provides more uniform, or equitable, lead time for all locations downstream of the event. When forecaster workload is high, storms remain continually tracked and warned. TIM mitigates gaps in warning coverage and improves the handling of storm motion changes. In addition, warnings are automatically cleared from locations where the threat has passed. This all results in greater average lead times and lower average departure times than current NWS warnings, with little to no impact to average false alarm time. This is particularly noteworthy for storms expected to live longer than the average warning duration (30 or 45 minutes) such as long-tracked supercells that are more prevalent during significant tornado outbreaks.
Keywords:

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National Weather Service Thunderstorm Forecasting Tornado Warning Systems
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 36, 1-58
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0159.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

United States
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:ba8363b37f6e0be51ae73ac656269965f91ca42379adc7c29717f1aa6e2fdefa
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28465/noaa_28465_DS1.pdf
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National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion

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