Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia

Shawki, Dilshad; Field, Robert D.; Tippett, Michael K.; Saharjo, Bambang Hero; Albar, Israr; Atmoko, Dwi; Voulgarakis, Apostolos

doi:10.1002/2017GL073660

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Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia

2017
By Shawki, Dilshad ; Field, Robert D. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 9996– 10,005.

[PDF-3.10 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Shawki, Dilshad ; Field, Robert D. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Saharjo, Bambang Hero ; Albar, Israr ; ... More +

Shawki, Dilshad ; Field, Robert D. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Saharjo, Bambang Hero ; Albar, Israr ; Atmoko, Dwi ; Voulgarakis, Apostolos Less -
Corporate Authors:

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.)

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.) Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

We conducted a case study of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non‐El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180 day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. This case study provides the starting point for longer‐term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.
Keywords:

[+]

Biomass El Niño Current Fire Forecasting Haze Biomass burning, fire
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 9996– 10,005.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073660
Pubmed ID:

32803204
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC7427816
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310184
Place as Subject:

Indonesia
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:04949376072c99950e79de46533bf526856f325837ae83212c67ffba3e4a2627
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28437/noaa_28437_DS1.pdf
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No Additional Files

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Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia

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