i
Predicting the U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part II: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts
-
2017
Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18(7), 1963-1982
[PDF-19.53 MB]
Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed
Details:
-
Journal Title:Journal of Hydrometeorology
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the “distance” from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because USDM states that are close to the next-higher drought category are more likely to intensify than states that are farther from this threshold. The method shows skill over most of the United States but is most skillful over the north-central United States, where the cross-validated Brier skill score averages 0.20 for both 2- and 4-week forecasts. The 8-week forecasts are less skillful in most locations. The 2- and 4-week probabilities have very good reliability. The 8-week probabilities, on the other hand, are noticeably overconfident. For individual drought events, the method shows the most skill when forecasting high-amplitude flash droughts and when large regions of the United States are experiencing intensifying drought.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18(7), 1963-1982
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:4cba0c36f97e3407eb30427f05a72c64752f4cc40870ea7127c40d9cc97909e1
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Asymmetric modulation of El Nino and La Nina and the linkage to tropical Pacific decadal variabilityCitePersonal Author:Okumura, Yuko M. ;Sun, Tianyi...2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(12), 4705-4733.Description:El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a 1300-yr preindustrial control simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), exhibit...Personal Author:Bukovsky, Melissa S. ;McCrary, Rachel R....2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(20), 8275-8298.Description:Global and regional climate model ensembles project that the annual cycle of rainfall over the southern Great Plains (SGP) will amplify by midcentury....2017 | J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2529– 2548Description:The relationships between radiation, clouds, and convection on an intraseasonal time scale are examined with data taken during the Dynamics of the Mad...Personal Author:Ma, Xiaohui ;Chang, Ping...2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(5), 1861-1880.Description:Local and remote atmospheric responses to mesoscale SST anomalies associated with the oceanic front and eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region (KER) ...Personal Author:Henderson, Stephanie A. ;Maloney, Eric D....2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(12), 4567-4587.Description:Teleconnection patterns associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly alter extratropical circulations, impacting weather and cl...Personal Author:Booth, James F. ;Kwon, Young-Oh...2017 | ournal of Climate, 30(13), 4965-4981.Description:To improve the understanding of storm tracks and western boundary current (WBC) interactions, surface storm tracks in 12 CMIP5 models are examined aga...Improved ENSO forecasting using Bayesian updating and the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME)CitePersonal Author:Zhang, Wei ;Villarini, Gabriele...2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(22), 9007-9025Description:This study assesses the forecast skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting Niño-3/-3.4 indices and improves their...2017 | J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 7493– 7504Description:A common problem in climate models is that they are likely to produce rain at a faster rate than is observed and therefore produce too much light rain...Personal Author:Partain, James L. ;Alden, Sharon...2016 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S14-S18Description:The 2015 Alaska fire season burned 5.1million acres, the second largest burned area since1940, exceeded only by the 2004 Alaska fire seasonwhen 6.2 mi...Personal Author:Wang, Lu ;Li, Tim...2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(10), 3743-3769.Description:This study investigates the fundamental causes of differences in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) eastward propagation among models that particip...Personal Author:Barnston, Anthony G. ;Tippett, Michael K.2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(20), 8335-8355.Description:Canonical correlation analysis (CCA)-based statistical corrections are applied to seasonal mean precipitation and temperature hindcasts of the individ...Personal Author:Seager, Richard ;Henderson, Naomi2016 | Journal of Climate, 29(22), 8027-8049.Description:The causes of the high pressure ridge at the North American west coast during winter 2013/14, the driest winter of the recent California drought, are ...Personal Author:Huang, Danqing ;Dai, Aiguo...2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(12), 4443-4462.Description:Global-mean surface temperature has experienced fast warming during 1985–98 but stabilized during 1999–2013, especially in boreal winter. Climate ...Personal Author:Luo, Dehai ;Yao, Yao...2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(10), 3569-3587.Description:In Part I of this study, it was shown that the Eurasian cold anomalies related to Arctic warming depend strongly on the quasi stationarity and persist...Personal Author:Dai, Ying ;Feldstein, Steven B....2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(9), 3139-3155.Description:The mechanisms that drive the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern with and without its canonical tropical convection pattern are inv...Personal Author:Quinn, Kevin M. ;Neelin, J. David2017 | Journal of Climate, 30(20), 8045-8059.Description:Distributions of precipitation cluster power (latent heat release rate integrated over contiguous precipitating pixels) are examined in 1°–2°-reso...Personal Author:DelSole, Timothy ;Banerjee, Arindam2016 | Journal of Climate, 30(4), 1345-1361.Description:This paper proposes a regularized regression procedure for finding a predictive relation between one variable and a field of other variables. The proc...Personal Author:Misra, Vasubandhu ;Bhardwaj, Amit...2016 | Journal of Climate, 30(5), 1753-1763Description:The canonical relationship between the length and the total seasonal rainfall anomalies of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is the association of the l...Personal Author:Serra, Yolande L. ;Geil, Kerrie2016 | Journal of Climate, 30(7), 2269-2294Description:The tracks of westward-propagating synoptic disturbances across the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) and far-eastern Pacific, known as easterly waves or tropi...
More +
You May Also Like
Personal Author:
Lorenz, David J. ;
Otkin, Jason A.
...
2017 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18(7), 1943-1962
Description:
The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) classifies drought into five discrete dryness/drought categories based on expert synthesis of numerous data sources. I...
Personal Author:
Chen, L. G. ;
Gottschalck, J.
...
2019 | Atmosphere 2019, 10(9), 498
Description:
Understanding the characteristics of flash drought events and further predicting the onset of such events on subseasonal timescales is of critical imp...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov