A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18

DiNezio, Pedro N.; Deser, Clara; Karspeck, Alicia; Yeager, Stephen; Okumura, Yuko; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Rosenbloom, Nan; Caron, Julie; Meehl, Gerald A.

doi:10.1002/2017GL074904

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A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18

2017
By DiNezio, Pedro N. ; Deser, Clara ; Karspeck, Alicia ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11,624– 11,635.

[PDF-1.70 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

DiNezio, Pedro N. ; Deser, Clara ; Karspeck, Alicia ; Yeager, Stephen ; Okumura, Yuko ; ... More +

DiNezio, Pedro N. ; Deser, Clara ; Karspeck, Alicia ; Yeager, Stephen ; Okumura, Yuko ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Rosenbloom, Nan ; Caron, Julie ; Meehl, Gerald A. Less -
Corporate Authors:

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (U.S.) ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.)

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (U.S.) ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.) Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Historical observations show that one in two La Niña events last for two consecutive years. Despite their outsized impacts on drought, these 2 year La Niña are not predicted on a routine basis. Here we assess their predictability using retrospective forecasts performed with a climate model that simulates realistic multiyear events, as well as with an empirical model based on observed predictors. The skill of the retrospective forecasts allows us to make predictions for the upcoming 2017–2018 boreal winter starting from conditions in November 2015. These 2 year forecasts indicate that the return of La Niña is more likely than not, with a 60% probability based on the climate model and an 80% probability based on the empirical model; the likelihood of El Niño is less than 8% in both cases. These results demonstrate the feasibility of predictions of the duration of La Niña.
Keywords:

[+]

El Niño Current Forecasting La Niña Current Southern Oscillation ENSO Prediction Two Years
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11,624– 11,635.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074904
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310229 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4310228 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4310227 ; Grant no. NA17OAR4310145 ; Grant no. NA17OAR4310149 ; ... More +

Grant no. NA14OAR4310229 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4310228 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4310227 ; Grant no. NA17OAR4310145 ; Grant no. NA17OAR4310149 ; Grant no. NA13OAR4310138 Less -
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urn:sha256:6077bab06b713a25894a46790b04758843d3291d740ecc6a9a4fe51534302a7a
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28412/noaa_28412_DS1.pdf
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A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18

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