i
Spatial Variability in Seasonal Prediction Skill of SSTs: Inherent Predictability or Forecast Errors?
-
2018
Source: J. Clim. (2018) 31(2): 613–621
[PDF-1.62 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Journal of Climate
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Seasonal prediction skill of SSTs from coupled models has considerable spatial variations. In the tropics, SST prediction skill in the tropical Pacific clearly exceeds prediction skill over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Such skill variations can be due to spatial variations in observing system used for forecast initializations or systematic errors in the seasonal prediction systems, or they could be a consequence of inherent properties of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system leaving a fingerprint on the spatial structure of SST predictability. Out of various alternatives, the spatial variability in SST prediction skill is argued to be a consequence of inherent characteristics of climate system. This inference is supported based on the following analyses. SST prediction skill is higher over the regions where coupled air–sea interactions (or Bjerknes feedback) are inferred to be stronger. Coupled air–sea interactions, and the longer time scales associated with them, imprint longer memory and thereby support higher SST prediction skill. The spatial variability of SST prediction skill is also consistent with differences in the ocean–atmosphere interaction regimes that distinguish between whether ocean drives the atmosphere or atmosphere drives the ocean. Regions of high SST prediction skill generally coincide with regions where ocean forces the atmosphere. Such regimes correspond to regions where oceanic variability is on longer time scales compared to regions where atmosphere forces the ocean. Such regional differences in the spatial characteristics of ocean–atmosphere interactions, in turn, also govern the spatial variations in SST skill, making spatial variations in skill an intrinsic property of the climate system and not an artifact of the observing system or model biases.
-
Source:J. Clim. (2018) 31(2): 613–621
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:315b6969a777409409cfcb53faea13e295537264e61181aa163eb6605f49f96f
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
2018 | JGR Atmospheres 122(10), 5188-5204, 2018Description:Eastward propagating Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) events that develop in the Indian Ocean from November to April are separated into events whose ...Personal Author:Adames, Ángel F. ;Ming, Yi2018 | J. Atmos. Sci. (2018) 75(6): 2083–2106Description:South Asian monsoon low pressure systems, referred to as synoptic-scale monsoonal disturbances (SMDs), are convectively coupled cyclonic disturbances ...Personal Author:Dong, Bo ;Dai, Aiguo...2018 | J. Clim. (2018) 31(18): 7337–7361Description:Remote influences of ENSO are known to vary with different phases of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Here, observational and reanalysis da...Personal Author:Henderson, Stephanie A. ;Maloney, Eric D.2018 | J. Clim. (2018) 31(13): 5293–5318Description:Wintertime high-latitude blocking is associated with persistent changes in temperature and precipitation over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Studies...Personal Author:Kuo, Yi-Hung ;Schiro, Kathleen A....2018 | J. Atmos. Sci. (2018) 75(5): 1553–1570Description:Convective transition statistics, which describe the relation between column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, are compiled over tropica...Personal Author:Yi, Daling Li ;Gan, Bolan...2018 | J. Clim. (2018) 31(6): 2487–2509Description:Based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) product and 37 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) database, t...Personal Author:Chen, Han-Ching ;Sui, Chung-Hsiung...2018 | J. Clim. (2018) 31(14): 5461–5483Description:This study investigates the sudden reversal of anomalous zonal equatorial transport above thermocline at the peak phase of ENSO. The oceanic processes...Changes in atmospheric blocking circulations linked with winter arctic warming: a new perspectiveCitePersonal Author:Luo, Dehai ;Chen, Xiaodan...2018 | J. Clim. (2018) 31(18): 7661–7678Description:Winter atmospheric blocking circulations such as Ural blocking (UB) have been recognized to play an important role in recent winter Eurasian cooling. ...Moisture and moist static energy budgets of South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in GFDL AM4.0CitePersonal Author:Adames, Ángel F. ;Ming, Yi2018 | J. Atmos. Sci. (2018) 75(6): 2107–2123Description:The mechanisms that lead to the propagation of anomalous moisture and moist static energy (MSE) in monsoon low and high pressure systems, collectively...Contributions of internal variability and external forcing to the recent Pacific decadal variationsCite2018 | Geophysical Research Letters 45(14): 7084-7092, 2018Description:There is substantial uncertainty in the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcing to the recent Pacific decadal variability,...Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model EnsembleCite2017 | Geophysical Research Letters 44(22): 11654-11662, 2017Description:Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the...Salinification in the South China Sea since late 2012: a reversal of the freshening since 1990sCite2018 | Geophysical Research Letters 45(6): 2744-2751, 2018Description:Salinification has occurred in the South China Sea from late 2012 to the present, as shown by satellite Aquarius/Soil Moisture Active Passive data and...Effect of topography on subglacial discharge and submarine melting during tidewater glacier retreatCite2018 | JGR Earth Surface 123(1), 66-79, 2018Description:To first order, subglacial discharge depends on climate, which determines precipitation fluxes and glacier mass balance, and the rate of glacier volum...2018 | Geophysical Research Letters 45(14): 7148-7155, 2018Description:The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, having profound impacts on many weather and climate p...Personal Author:Deser, Clara ;Simpson, Isla R....2018 | J. Clim. (2018) 31(13): 4991–5014Description:The role of sampling variability in ENSO composites of winter surface air temperature and precipitation over North America during the period 1920–20...2018 | JGR Oceans 123(10), 7550-7563, 2018Description:Satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Sea‐viewing Wide Field‐of‐view Sensor reveal a “tongue” of...2018 | JGR Atmospheres 123(10), 4988-5000, 2018Description:Sensible heat flux directly influences local and regional climate and can be estimated using remotely sensed satellite observations. Although signific...2018 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 75(6):2202–2212Description:Alteration and degradation of benthic structure by fishing gear can impede efforts to manage fish stock sustainably. Although the impacts of mobile ge...2017 | Geophysical Research Letters 44(22): 11614-11623, 2017Description:Wintertime precipitation over the southern U.S. is known to decrease with interannual cooling of the equatorial Pacific associated with La Niña, whic...
More +
You May Also Like
Personal Author:
Janiga, Matthew A. ;
J. Schreck, Carl
...
2018 | Mon. Weath. Rev. (2018) 146(8): 2337–2360
Description:
In this study, the contribution of low-frequency (>100 days), Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and convectively coupled equatorial wave (CCEW) varia...
Prediction of the midlatitude response to strong Madden-Julian oscillation events on S2S timescales
Cite
2018 | Geophysical Research Letters 45(1): 463-470, 2018
Description:
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) forces strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseaso...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov