Evaluating the accuracy and uncertainty of atmospheric and wave model hindcasts during severe events using model ensembles

Abdolali, Ali; van der Westhuysen, Andre; Ma, Zaizhong; Mehra, Avichal; Roland, Aron; Moghimi, Saeed

doi:10.1007/s10236-020-01426-9

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Evaluating the accuracy and uncertainty of atmospheric and wave model hindcasts during severe events using model ensembles

2021
By Abdolali, Ali ; van der Westhuysen, Andre ; Ma, Zaizhong ; ...
Source: Ocean Dynamics, 71(2) 1-19

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Journal Title:

Ocean Dynamics: Theoretical, Computational and Observational Oceanography
Personal Author:

Abdolali, Ali ; van der Westhuysen, Andre ; Ma, Zaizhong ; Mehra, Avichal ; Roland, Aron ; ... More +

Abdolali, Ali ; van der Westhuysen, Andre ; Ma, Zaizhong ; Mehra, Avichal ; Roland, Aron ; Moghimi, Saeed Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; OCS (Office of Coast Survey)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; OCS (Office of Coast Survey) Less -
Description:

Various uncertainties exist in a hindcast due to the inabilities of numerical models to resolve all the complicated atmosphere-sea interactions, and the lack of certain ground truth observations. Here, a comprehensive analysis of an atmospheric modelperformance in hindcast mode (Hurricane Weather and Research Forecasting model—HWRF) and its 40 ensembles duringsevere events is conducted, evaluating the model accuracy and uncertainty for hurricane track parameters, and wind speedcollected along satellite altimeter tracks and at stationary source point observations. Subsequently, the downstream spectralwave model WAVEWATCH III is forced by two sets of wind field data, each includes 40 members. The first ones arerandomly extracted from original HWRF simulations and the second ones are based on spread of best track parameters. Theatmospheric model spread and wave model error along satellite altimeters tracks and at stationary source point observationsare estimated. The study on Hurricane Irma reveals that wind and wave observations during this extreme event are withinensemble spreads. While both Models have wide spreads over areas with landmass, maximum uncertainty in the atmosphericmodel is at hurricane eye in contrast to the wave model.
Keywords:

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Climatology Evaluation Mathematical Models Ocean-atmosphere Interaction
Source:

Ocean Dynamics, 71(2) 1-19
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01426-9
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Journal Article
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CC BY
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urn:sha256:647c48c4e751ccefa6b6dd781a485778083f2031db801c5354af86d0154cccbc
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28195/noaa_28195_DS1.pdf
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