Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales

Ross, Andrew C.; Stock, Charles A.; Dixon, Keith W.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Li, Ming; Pegion, Kathleen; Saba, Vincent; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

doi:10.1029/2020EA001179

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales

2020
By Ross, Andrew C. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Dixon, Keith W. ; ...
Source: Earth and Space Science, 7(10)

[PDF-4.00 MB]

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Journal Title:

Earth and Space Science
Personal Author:

Ross, Andrew C. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Dixon, Keith W. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Hood, Raleigh R. ; ... More +

Ross, Andrew C. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Dixon, Keith W. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Hood, Raleigh R. ; Li, Ming ; Pegion, Kathleen ; Saba, Vincent ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NEFSC (Northeast Fisheries Science Center) ; CIMES (Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NEFSC (Northeast Fisheries Science Center) ; CIMES (Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System) Less -
Description:

Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine conditions, and the predictability of tidal cycles. In this study, we test whether skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for up to 35 days into the future by combining an estuarine model of Chesapeake Bay with 35-day atmospheric forecasts from an operational weather model. When compared with both a hindcast simulation from the same estuarine model and with observations, the estuarine forecasts for surface water temperature are skillful up to about 2 weeks into the future, and the forecasts for bottom temperature, surface and bottom salinity, and density stratification are skillful for all or the majority of the forecast period. Bottom oxygen forecasts are skillful when compared to the model hindcast, but not when compared with observations. We also find that skill for all variables in the estuary can be improved by taking the mean of multiple estuarine forecasts driven by an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts. Finally, we examine the forecasts in detail using two case studies of extreme events, and we discuss opportunities for improving the forecast skill.
Keywords:

[+]

Weather forecasting
Source:

Earth and Space Science, 7(10)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001179
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4320123
Place as Subject:

Chesapeake Bay (Md. and Va.)
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:f600d7177c947fb985a4bd06168242f56567ed1aaaff606db1d68acddc745072
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/27275/noaa_27275_DS1.pdf
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Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales

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