A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Verification from Three Global Forecast System (GFS) Operational Configurations

Halperin, Daniel J.; Penny, Andrew B.; Hart, Robert E.

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-20-0043.1

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A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Verification from Three Global Forecast System (GFS) Operational Configurations

2020
By Halperin, Daniel J. ; Penny, Andrew B. ; Hart, Robert E.
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 35(5), 1801-1815

[PDF-4.97 MB]

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Halperin, Daniel J. ; Penny, Andrew B. ; Hart, Robert E.

Halperin, Daniel J. ; Penny, Andrew B. ; Hart, Robert E. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NHC (National Hurricane Center)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NHC (National Hurricane Center) Less -
Description:

Operational forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has improved in recent years but still can be a challenge. Output from global numerical models continues to serve as a primary source of forecast guidance. Bulk verification statistics (e.g., critical success index) of TC genesis forecasts indicate that, overall, global models are increasingly able to predict TC genesis. However, as global model configurations are updated, TC genesis verification statistics will change. This study compares operational and retrospective forecasts from three configurations of NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) to quantify the impact of model upgrades on TC genesis forecasts. First, bulk verification statistics from a homogeneous sample of model initialization cycles during the period 2013–14 are compared. Then, composites of select output fields are analyzed in an attempt to identify any key differences between hit and false alarm events. Bulk statistics indicate that TC genesis forecast performance decreased with the implementation of the 2015 version of the GFS, but then modestly recovered with the 2016 version of the model. In addition, the composite analysis suggests that false alarm forecasts in the 2015 version of the GFS may have been the result of inaccurately forecasting the location and/or strength of upper-level troughs poleward of the TC. There is also evidence of convective feedbacks occurring, such as ridging above the low-level circulation and upper-level convective outflow that were too strong, in this same set of false alarm forecasts. Overall, analyzing retrospective forecasts can assist forecasters in determining the strengths and weaknesses associated with a new configuration of a global model with respect to TC genesis.
Keywords:

[+]

Statistical Weather Forecasting Weather Forecasting Forecast Verification Model Comparison Model Evaluation Model Performance Numerical Weather Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 35(5), 1801-1815
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0043.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4590141 ; Grant no. NA18NWS4680066

Grant no. NA17OAR4590141 ; Grant no. NA18NWS4680066 Less -
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:65283ba661e8977d3c926c2200740c01f885cbd81622414ba0e5dc830a8cf583
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/46394/noaa_46394_DS1.pdf
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A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Verification from Three Global Forecast System (GFS) Operational Configurations

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