Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States?

Jung, E.; Kirtman, B. P.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074018

[PDF-2.89 MB]

Details:

Personal Author:

Jung, E. ; Kirtman, B. P. ;

NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ;

Description:

Severe convective storms cause catastrophic losses each year in the United States, suggesting that any predictive capability is of great societal benefit. While it is known that El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence high impact weather events, such as a tornado activity and severe storms, in the US during early spring, this study highlights that the influence of ENSO on US severe storm characteristics is weak during May-July. Instead, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is a potential predictor for moist instability, which is an important factor in influencing the storm characteristics in the US during May-July.

Keywords:

[+]

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074018

Document Type:

Journal Article

Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4830127 ; Grant no. NA12OAR4310089 ; Grant no. NA10OAR4320143 ;

Place as Subject:

Mexico, Gulf of ; United States ;

Rights Information:

CC BY

Main Document Checksum:

[+]

File Type:

Supporting Files:

No Additional Files

Climate change impacts on peak building cooling energy demand in a coastal megacity

[PDF - 1.09 MB]

Personal Author:

Ortiz, L. ; Gonzalez, J. E. ; ...

Published Date:

2018

Source:

Environmental Research Letters

Description:

Buildings and the atmosphere are intrinsically connected via cooling and heating systems. Global climate is projected to grow warmer, with an increasi...

File Type:

[PDF - 1.09 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 1.09 MB]
Detecting spatiotemporal changes of peak foliage coloration in deciduous and mixedforests across the Central and Eastern United States

[PDF - 3.25 MB]

Personal Author:

Liu, L. L. ; Zhang, X. Y. ; ...

Published Date:

2017

Source:

Environmental Research Letters

Description:

The timing of fall foliage coloration, especially peak coloration, is of great importance to the climate change research community as it has implicati...

File Type:

[PDF - 3.25 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 3.25 MB]
Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest

[PDF - 5.64 MB]

Personal Author:

Hellmann, L. ; Agafonov, L. ; ...

Published Date:

2016

Source:

Environmental Research Letters

Description:

The area covered by boreal forests accounts for similar to 16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity ...

File Type:

[PDF - 5.64 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 5.64 MB]
A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database

[PDF - 1.87 MB]

Personal Author:

Donner, S. D. ; Rickbeil, G. J. M. ; ...

Published Date:

2017

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. De...

File Type:

[PDF - 1.87 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 1.87 MB]
Abundance of commercially important reef fish indicates different levels of over-exploitation across shelves of the U.S. Virgin Islands

[PDF - 2.67 MB]

Personal Author:

Kadison, E. ; Brandt, M. ; ...

Published Date:

2017

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

The United States Virgin Islands are comprised of two separate insular platforms separated by the deep water Anegada Passage. Although managed by the ...

File Type:

[PDF - 2.67 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 2.67 MB]
Large-Scale Genotyping-by-Sequencing Indicates High Levels of Gene Flow in the Deep-Sea Octocoral Swiftia simplex (Nutting 1909) on the West Coast of the United States

[PDF - 1.74 MB]

Personal Author:

Everett, M. V. ; Park, L. K. ; ...

Published Date:

2016

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

Deep-sea corals are a critical component of habitat in the deep-sea, existing as regional hotspots for biodiversity, and are associated with increased...

File Type:

[PDF - 1.74 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 1.74 MB]
The Structure and Distribution of Benthic Communities on a Shallow Seamount (Cobb Seamount, Northeast Pacific Ocean)

[PDF - 3.62 MB]

Personal Author:

Du Preez, C. ; Curtis, J. M. R. ; ...

Published Date:

2016

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

Partially owing to their isolation and remote distribution, research on seamounts is still in its infancy, with few comprehensive datasets and empiric...

File Type:

[PDF - 3.62 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 3.62 MB]
Diversity from genes to ecosystems: A unifying framework to study variation across biological metrics and scales

[PDF - 1.41 MB]

Personal Author:

Gaggiotti, O. E. ; Chao, A. ; ...

Published Date:

2018

Source:

Evolutionary Applications

Description:

Biological diversity is a key concept in the life sciences and plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes. Although biodiv...

File Type:

[PDF - 1.41 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 1.41 MB]
Bayesian stock assessment of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska

[PDF - 5.83 MB]

Personal Author:

Muradian, M. L. ; Branch, T. A. ; ...

Published Date:

2017

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

The Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) population in Prince William Sound, Alaska crashed in 1993 and has yet to recover, affecting food web dynamics i...

File Type:

[PDF - 5.83 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 5.83 MB]
Evolutionary restoration potential evaluated through the use of a trait-linked genetic marker

[PDF - 1012.83 KB]

Personal Author:

Apgar, Travis M. ; Pearse, Devon E. ; ...

Published Date:

2017

Source:

Evol Appl. 2017 Jun; 10(5): 485–497.

Description:

Human‐driven evolution can impact the ecological role and conservation value of impacted populations. Most evolutionary restoration approaches focus...

File Type:

[PDF - 1012.83 KB]

File Type:

[PDF - 1012.83 KB]
Discovery and characterization of single nucleotide polymorphisms in two anadromous alosine fishes of conservation concern

[PDF - 583.71 KB]

Personal Author:

Baetscher, D. S. ; Hasselman, D. J. ; ...

Published Date:

2017

Source:

Ecology and Evolution

Description:

Freshwater habitat alteration and marine fisheries can affect anadromous fish species, and populations fluctuating in size elicit conservation concern...

File Type:

[PDF - 583.71 KB]

File Type:

[PDF - 583.71 KB]
Dynamic ensemble models to predict distributions and anthropogenic risk exposure for highly mobile species

[PDF - 1.50 MB]

Personal Author:

Abrahms, B. ; Welch, H. ; ...

Published Date:

2019

Source:

Diversity and Distributions

Description:

Aim Advances in ecological and environmental modelling offer new opportunities for estimating dynamic habitat suitability for highly mobile species an...

File Type:

[PDF - 1.50 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 1.50 MB]
Hawksbill turtle terra incognita: conservation genetics of eastern Pacific rookeries

[PDF - 1015.51 KB]

Personal Author:

Gaos, A. R. ; Lewison, R. L. ; ...

Published Date:

2016

Source:

Ecology and Evolution

Description:

Prior to 2008 and the discovery of several important hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting colonies in the EP (Eastern Pacific), the speci...

File Type:

[PDF - 1015.51 KB]

File Type:

[PDF - 1015.51 KB]
Effects of distance on detectability of Arctic waterfowl using double-observer sampling during helicopter surveys

[PDF - 610.81 KB]

Personal Author:

Alisauskas, R. T. ; Conn, P. B. ;

Published Date:

2019

Source:

Ecol Evol. 2019 Jan; 9(2): 859–867.

Description:

Aerial survey is an important, widely employed approach for estimating free-ranging wildlife over large or inaccessible study areas. We studied how a ...

File Type:

[PDF - 610.81 KB]

File Type:

[PDF - 610.81 KB]
Migratory culture, population structure and stock identity in North Pacific beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas)

[PDF - 4.56 MB]

Personal Author:

O'Corry-Crowe, G. ; Suydam, R. ; ...

Published Date:

2018

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

The annual return of beluga whales, Delphinapterus leucas, to traditional seasonal locations across the Arctic may involve migratory culture, while th...

File Type:

[PDF - 4.56 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 4.56 MB]
Disentangling genetic structure for genetic monitoring of complex populations

[PDF - 670.64 KB]

Personal Author:

Milligan, Brook G. ; Archer, Frederick I. ; ...

Published Date:

2018

Source:

Evol Appl. 2018 Aug; 11(7): 1149–1161.

Description:

Genetic monitoring estimates temporal changes in population parameters from molecular marker information. Most populations are complex in structure an...

File Type:

[PDF - 670.64 KB]

File Type:

[PDF - 670.64 KB]
An accurate and adaptable photogrammetric approach for estimating the mass and body condition of pinnipeds using an unmanned aerial system

[PDF - 16.54 MB]

Personal Author:

Krause, D. J. ; Hinke, J. T. ; ...

Published Date:

2017

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

Measurements of body size and mass are fundamental to pinniped population management and research. Manual measurements tend to be accurate but are inv...

File Type:

[PDF - 16.54 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 16.54 MB]
Habitat selection and seasonal movements of young bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) in the Bering Sea

[PDF - 8.60 MB]

Personal Author:

Cameron, M. F. ; Frost, K. J. ; ...

Published Date:

2018

Source:

PLOS ONE

Description:

The first year of life is typically the most critical to a pinniped's survival, especially for Arctic phocids which are weaned at only a few weeks of ...

File Type:

[PDF - 8.60 MB]

File Type:

[PDF - 8.60 MB]
Variability in metagenomic samples from the Puget Sound: Relationship to temporal and anthropogenic impacts