Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Africa

Details

• Journal Title:
  Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
• Personal Author:
  Cai, Wenju ; Reason, Chris ; Mohino, Elsa ; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen ; Malherbe, Johan ; Santoso, Agus ; Li, Xichen ; Chikoore, Hector ; Nnamchi, Hyancinth ; McPhaden, Michael J.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
• Description:
  The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — describing shifts between warm El Niño and cold La Niña phases — has a substantial effect on the global climate. In this Review, we outline the mechanisms and climate impacts of ENSO in Africa, focusing on rainfall. ENSO’s influence varies strongly by season, region, phase, event and decade, highlighting complex dynamics and asymmetries. Although difficult to generalize, key characteristics include: anomalies across the Sahel in July–September, related to the tropospheric temperature mechanism; a strong dipole in anomalies between eastern and southern Africa during October–December (the short rain reason) and December–February, linked to interactions with the Indian Ocean Dipole and Indian Ocean Basin mode, respectively; and anomalies over southern Africa (with possible indications of opposite anomalies over East Africa) during March–May (the long rain season), associated with continuation of the Indian Ocean Basin mode. These teleconnections tend to be most pronounced for East Pacific El Niño and Central Pacific La Niña events, as well as during decades when interbasin interactions are strongest. Although challenging to simulate, climate models suggest that these impacts will strengthen in the future, manifesting as an increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet extremes. Given the reliance of much of Africa on rain-fed agriculture, resolving these relationships is vital, necessitating realistic simulation of regional circulations, ENSO and its interbasin interactions.
• Keywords:
  Drought El Niño Current Precipitation (Meteorology) Rain And Rainfall Southern Oscillation Rain And Rainfall Southern Oscillation Climate Models Climate Variability El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• Source:
  Nat Rev Earth Environ 6, 503–520 (2025)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00705-7
• Format:
  PDF
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Africa
• Rights Information:
  Accepted Manuscript
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:9310fcd5e42e5f311aceafd7fbd067867e8b81e7057c7d78f0806f0def21a7e07ffb36a4ea87f534da4ec4f634336a71f004e4e6355b0ad7536a6606d6bd2caa
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71705/noaa_71705_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 4.13 MB ]