Probabilistic forecast of microcystin toxin using satellite remote sensing, in situ observations and numerical modeling

Liu, Qianqian; Rowe, Mark D.; Anderson, Eric J.; Stow, Craig A.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Johengen, Thomas H.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104705

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Probabilistic forecast of microcystin toxin using satellite remote sensing, in situ observations and numerical modeling

2020
By Liu, Qianqian ; Rowe, Mark D. ; Anderson, Eric J. ; ...
Source: Environmental Modelling & Software, 128

[PDF-3.40 MB]

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Journal Title:

Environmental Modelling & Software
Personal Author:

Liu, Qianqian ; Rowe, Mark D. ; Anderson, Eric J. ; Stow, Craig A. ; Stumpf, Richard P. ; ... More +

Liu, Qianqian ; Rowe, Mark D. ; Anderson, Eric J. ; Stow, Craig A. ; Stumpf, Richard P. ; Johengen, Thomas H. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

GLERL (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIGLR (Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science)

GLERL (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIGLR (Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science) Less -
Description:

Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) since the early 2000's dominated by Microcystis aeruginosa, which produce toxins known as microcystins. We develop an approach to predict the spatially- and temporally-resolved probability of exceeding a public health advisory (PHA) level (6 μg/L) of microcystins in the western basin of Lake Erie that would be suitable for use in a forecast system, consisting of 1) an existing HAB chlorophyll forecast system, 2) a toxin-chlorophyll-a relationship that is updated weekly from observations, and 3) a statistical model relating observed relative frequency of exceeding the PHA to model predictions over a hindcast period. We evaluate the system's performance and the system's useful level of skill. This novel approach to a CHAB toxin forecast system could provide a decision support tool to Lake Erie stakeholders, and the approach may be adapted to other systems.
Keywords:

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Microcystins Remote Sensing
Source:

Environmental Modelling & Software, 128
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104705
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Erie, Lake
Rights Information:

CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:6b54acdf3ecf5a985f366ace0c623e02475cac0c102b6be6553c50a4eb1292c3
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25967/noaa_25967_DS1.pdf
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Probabilistic forecast of microcystin toxin using satellite remote sensing, in situ observations and numerical modeling

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