Probabilistic forecast of microcystin toxin using satellite remote sensing, in situ observations and numerical modeling

Liu, Qianqian; Rowe, Mark D.; Anderson, Eric J.; Stow, Craig A.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Johengen, Thomas H.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104705

i

Probabilistic forecast of microcystin toxin using satellite remote sensing, in situ observations and numerical modeling

2020
By Liu, Qianqian ; Rowe, Mark D. ; Anderson, Eric J. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Environmental Modelling & Software
Personal Author:

Liu, Qianqian ; Rowe, Mark D. ; Anderson, Eric J. ; Stow, Craig A. ; Stumpf, Richard P. ; Johengen, Thomas H.
NOAA Program & Office:

GLERL (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIGLR (Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science)
Description:

Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) since the early 2000's dominated by Microcystis aeruginosa, which produce toxins known as microcystins. We develop an approach to predict the spatially- and temporally-resolved probability of exceeding a public health advisory (PHA) level (6 μg/L) of microcystins in the western basin of Lake Erie that would be suitable for use in a forecast system, consisting of 1) an existing HAB chlorophyll forecast system, 2) a toxin-chlorophyll-a relationship that is updated weekly from observations, and 3) a statistical model relating observed relative frequency of exceeding the PHA to model predictions over a hindcast period. We evaluate the system's performance and the system's useful level of skill. This novel approach to a CHAB toxin forecast system could provide a decision support tool to Lake Erie stakeholders, and the approach may be adapted to other systems.
Keywords:

Microcystins Remote Sensing Remote Sensing
Source:

Environmental Modelling & Software, 128
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104705
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Erie, Lake
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:14f791ae8283960e581e2b3785565c7d928b93610493458fa806a61de6799f2268372d339f37575bd4e3dcf8246ec9f040e3c4e6b75a8dca6b5a4221d5136eec
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25967/noaa_25967_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 3.40 MB ]

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