United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance on the use of photochemical models for assessing the efficacy of an emissions control strategy for ozone requires that modeling be used in a relative sense. Consequently, testing a modeling system's ability to predict changes in ozone resulting from emission changes is critical. We evaluate model simulations for precursor species (NOx, CO, and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]), radicals (OH and HO2), a secondary pollutant (O3), and the model response of these compounds to weekend/weekday emission changes during California Nexus study in 2010. The modeling system correctly simulated the broad spatial and temporal variation of NOx and O3 in California South Coast. Although the model generally underpredicted the daytime mixing ratios of NO2 at the surface and overpredicted the NO2 column, the simulated weekend to weekday ratios are consistent with each other and match the observed ratios well. The modeling system exhibited reasonable performance in simulating the VOC compounds with fossil fuel origins but has larger bias in simulating certain species associated with noncombustion sources. The modeling system successfully captured the weekend changes of the enhancement ratios for various VOC species to CO and the relative changes of HOx, which are indicators of faster chemical processing on weekends. This work demonstrates satisfactory model performances for O3 and most relevant chemical compounds with more robust performance in simulating weekend versus weekday changes. Improved planetary boundary layer height simulations, a better understanding of OH-HO2 cycling, continued improvement of emissions, especially urban biogenic emissions and emissions of oxygenated VOCs, are important for future model improvement.
Spain, E. A.; Johnson, S. C.; Hutton, B.; Whittaker, J. M.; Lucieer, V.; Watson, S. J.; Fox, J. M.; Lupton, J.; Arculus, R.; Bradney, A.; Coffin, M. F.;
Published Date:
2020
Source:
Earth and Space Science, 7(3)
Description:
Bubble emission mechanisms from submerged large igneous provinces remains enigmatic. The Kerguelen Plateau, a large igneous province in the southern Indian Ocean, has a long sustained history of active volcanism and glacial/interglacial cycles of sed...
J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. (2018) 35 (11): 2169–2187.
Description:
Time series simulation is an important tool for developing and testing new signal processing algorithms for weather radar. The methods for simulating time series data have not changed much over the last few decades, but recent advances in computing t...
Rosenow, Andrew A.; Howard, Kenneth; Meitín, José G.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Mon. Wea. Rev. (2018) 146 (8): 2469–2481.
Description:
On 24 January 2017, a convective snow squall developed in the San Luis Valley of Colorado. This squall produced rapidly varying winds at San Luis Valley airport in Alamosa, Colorado, with gusts up to 12 m s−1, and an associated visibility drop to 1...
The quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) algorithm developed and described in Part I was validated using data collected from 33 Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D) radars on 37 calendar days east of the Rocky Mountains. A key physi...
Potvin, Corey K.; Broyles, Chris; Skinner, Patrick S.; Brooks, Harold E.; Rasmussen, Erik;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (1): 15–30.
Description:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado database, generated from NCEI’s Storm Data publication, is indispensable for assessing U.S. tornado risk and investigating tornado–climate connections. Maximizing the value of this database, however, requ...
A prototype quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) algorithm that utilizes specific attenuation A and specific differential phase KDP was developed for inclusion into the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system and the Weather Surveillance Radar-19...
Observations from three nights of the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign were used in conjunction with Rapid Refresh model forecasts to find the cause of north–south lines of convection, which initiated away from obvious sur...
Jones, Thomas A.; Skinner, Patrick; Knopfmeier, Kent; Mansell, Edward; Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra; Smith, William Jr.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Wea. Forecasting (2018) 33 (6): 1681–1708.
Description:
Forecasts of high-impact weather conditions using convection-allowing numerical weather prediction models have been found to be highly sensitive to the selection of cloud microphysics scheme used within the system. The Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project ...
Flora, Montgomery L.; Potvin, Corey K.; Wicker, Louis J.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Mon. Wea. Rev. (2018) 146 (8): 2361–2379.
Description:
As convection-allowing ensembles are routinely used to forecast the evolution of severe thunderstorms, developing an understanding of storm-scale predictability is critical. Using a full-physics numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework, the sensi...
Wade, Andrew R.; Coniglio, Michael C.; Ziegler, Conrad L.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Mon. Wea. Rev. (2018) 146 (8): 2403–2415.
Description:
A great deal of research focuses on how the mesoscale environment influences convective storms, but relatively little is known about how supercells modify the nearby environment. Soundings from three field experiments are used to investigate differen...
Tornado warnings are one of the flagship products of the National Weather Service. We update the time series of various metrics of performance in order to provide baselines over the 1986–2016 period for lead time, probability of detection, false al...
Adams-Selin, Rebecca D.; Clark, Adam J.; Melick, Christopher J.; Dembek, Scott R.; Jirak, Israel L.; Ziegler, Conrad L.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (1): 61–79.
Description:
Four different versions of the HAILCAST hail model have been tested as part of the 2014–16 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments. HAILCAST was run as part of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF Ensemble du...
Cui, Y. Y.; Henze, D. K.; Brioude, J.; Angevine, W. M.; Liu, Z.; Bousserez, N.; Guerrette, J.; McKeen, S. A.; Peischl, J.; Yuan, B.; Ryerson, T.; Frost, G.; Trainer, M.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(6)
Description:
Quantifying methane (CH4) emissions from the oil and natural gas (O/NG) production sector is an important regulatory challenge in the United States. In this study, we conduct a set of inversion calculations using different methods to quantify lognorm...
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists,7(3)
Description:
Estimating nonmarket benefits for erosion protection can help inform better decision making and policies for communities to adapt to climate change. We estimate private values for a coastal protection option in an empirical setting subject to irrever...
Koch, Steven E.; Fengler, Martin; Chilson, Philip B., 1963-; Elmore, Kimberly L.; Argrow, Brian M.; Andra, David; Lindley, T. Todd;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. (2018) 35 (11): 2265–2288.
Description:
The potential value of small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for monitoring the preconvective environment and providing useful information in real time to weather forecasters for evaluation at a National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office are addr...
Gallo, Burkely T.; Clark, Adam J.; Smith, Bryan T.; Thompson, Richard L.; Jirak, Israel; Dembek, Scott R.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (1): 151–164.
Description:
Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving (RM) supercells. However, when...
Corral Arroyo, P.; Aellig, R.; Alpert, P. A.; Volkamer, R.; Ammann, M.;
Published Date:
2020
Source:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19(16), 10817-10828
Description:
Atmospheric aerosol particles can contain light-absorbing organic compounds, also referred to as brown carbon (BrC). The ocean surface and sea spray aerosol particles can also contain light-absorbing organic species referred to as chromophoric dissol...
Brewer, J. F.; Papanastasiou, D. K.; Burkholder, J. B.; Fischer, E. V.; Ren, Y.; Mellouki, A.; Ravishankara, A. R.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(11), 5906-5918
Description:
Ketone photolysis is a potentially important source of HOx radicals in the upper troposphere. To represent this photolysis, models need to include actinic flux, quantum yield, and absorption cross sections over a range of atmospherically relevant con...
Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) are an emerging technique for studying the formation and oxidative aging of organic aerosols and other applications. In these flow reactors, hydroxyl radicals (OH), hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2), and nitric oxide (NO) are...
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