Long-Term Performance Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings

Brooks, Harold E.; Correia, James

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-18-0120.1

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Long-Term Performance Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings

2018
By Brooks, Harold E. ; Correia, James
Source: Wea. Forecasting (2018) 33 (6): 1501–1511.

[PDF-1.09 MB]

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Brooks, Harold E. ; Correia, James

Brooks, Harold E. ; Correia, James Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Tornado warnings are one of the flagship products of the National Weather Service. We update the time series of various metrics of performance in order to provide baselines over the 1986–2016 period for lead time, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and warning duration. We have used metrics (mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance, fraction of tornadoes warned in advance) that work in a consistent way across the official changes in policy for warning issuance, as well as across points in time when unofficial changes took place. The mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance was relatively constant from 1986 to 2011, while the fraction of tornadoes warned in advance increased through about 2006, and the false alarm ratio slowly decreased. The largest changes in performance take place in 2012 when the default warning duration decreased, and there is an apparent increased emphasis on reducing false alarms. As a result, the lead time, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio all decrease in 2012.

Our analysis is based, in large part, on signal detection theory, which separates the quality of the warning system from the threshold for issuing warnings. Threshold changes lead to trade-offs between false alarms and missed detections. Such changes provide further evidence for changes in what the warning system as a whole considers important, as well as highlighting the limitations of measuring performance by looking at metrics independently.
Keywords:

[+]

Meteorology Tornado Warning Systems
Source:

Wea. Forecasting (2018) 33 (6): 1501–1511.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0120.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4320115
Place as Subject:

United States
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Other
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:67bda8c6a7b5259e0eaefd8d81909ff6164be04caeac7e40ef0069ce256fdaea
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25664/noaa_25664_DS1.pdf
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Long-Term Performance Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings

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