Details:

Journal Title:
Monthly Weather Review
Personal Author:
Mueller, Michael J. ; Kren, Andrew C. ; Cucurull, Lidia ; Casey, Sean P. F. ; Hoffman, Ross N. ; ... More +
Mueller, Michael J. ; Kren, Andrew C. ; Cucurull, Lidia ; Casey, Sean P. F. ; Hoffman, Ross N. ; Atlas, Robert ; Peevey, Tanya R. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; ... More +
CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) Less -
Description:
A global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) was used to assess the potential impact of a proposed Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) constellation on tropical cyclone (TC) track, maximum 10-m wind speed (Vmax), and integrated kinetic energy (IKE) forecasts. The OSSE system was based on the 7-km NASA nature run and simulated RO refractivity determined by the spatial distribution of observations from the original planned (i.e., including both equatorial and polar orbits) Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2). Data were assimilated using the NOAA operational weather analysis and forecasting system. Three experiments generated global TC track, Vmax, and IKE forecasts over 6 weeks of the North Atlantic hurricane season in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and west Pacific basins. Confidence in our results was bolstered because track forecast errors were similar to those of official National Hurricane Center forecasts, and Vmax errors and IKE errors showed similar results. GNSS-RO assimilation did not significantly impact global track forecasts, but did slightly degrade Vmax and IKE forecasts in the first 30–60 h of lead time. Global forecast error statistics show adding or excluding explicit random errors to RO profiles made little difference to forecasts. There was large forecast-to-forecast variability in RO impact. For two cases studied in depth, track and Vmax improvements and degradations were traced backward through the previous 24 h of assimilation cycles. The largest Vmax degradation was traced to particularly good control analyses rather than poor analyses caused by GNSS-RO.
Keywords:
[+]
Cyclones—Tropics Global Positioning System Numerical Weather Forecasting
Source:
Monthly Weather Review, 148(7), 3037-3057
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0360.1
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
Grant no. NA17OAR4320101
Rights Information:
Other
Compliance:
Submitted
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:be2f2d6f3c2ead961f4bfa3b4e6941b57f5ab2af5c1f0fd1058904d1ea4f4dbc
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25712/noaa_25712_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

• No Additional Files

More +