Meteorological Differences Characterizing Tornado Outbreak Forecasts of Varying Quality

Mercer, Andrew; Bates, Alyssa Victoria, 1988-

doi:10.3390/atmos10010016

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Meteorological Differences Characterizing Tornado Outbreak Forecasts of Varying Quality

2018

By Mercer, Andrew ; Bates, Alyssa Victoria, 1988-

Source: Atmosphere 2019, 10(1), 16.

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Journal Title:

Atmosphere

Personal Author:

Mercer, Andrew ; Bates, Alyssa Victoria, 1988-

NOAA Program & Office:

NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies)

Description:

Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are a major hazard to life and property for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. Improving tornado outbreak (TO) forecasts will help minimize risks associated with these major events. In this study, we present a methodology for quantifying TO forecasts of varying quality, based on Storm Prediction Center convective outlook forecasts, and provide synoptic and mesoscale composite analyses to identify important features characterizing these events. Synoptic-scale composites from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) are presented for TO forecasts at three forecast quality levels, H-class (high quality), M-class (medium quality), and L-class (low quality), as well as false alarm TO forecasts. H-class and false alarm TO forecasts share many meteorological similarities, particularly in the synoptic-scale, though false alarm events show less well-defined low-level synoptic-scale features. M- and L-class TOs present environments dominated by mesoscale thermodynamic processes (particularly dryline structures), contrasting H-class TOs which are clearly synoptically driven. Simulations of these composites reveal higher instability in M- and L-class TOs that lack key kinematic structures that characterize H-class TOs. The results presented offer important forecast feedback that can help inform future TO predictions and ultimately produce improved TO forecast quality.

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Source:

Atmosphere 2019, 10(1), 16.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010016

Document Type:

Journal Article

Rights Information:

CC BY

Compliance:

Submitted

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Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25684/noaa_25684_DS1.pdf

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No Additional Files

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Meteorological Differences Characterizing Tornado Outbreak Forecasts of Varying Quality

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