Meteorological Differences Characterizing Tornado Outbreak Forecasts of Varying Quality

Mercer, Andrew; Bates, Alyssa Victoria, 1988-

doi:10.3390/atmos10010016

Advanced Search

Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

Advanced Search
Custom Query

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Meteorological Differences Characterizing Tornado Outbreak Forecasts of Varying Quality

2018
By Mercer, Andrew ; Bates, Alyssa Victoria, 1988-
Source: Atmosphere 2019, 10(1), 16.

[PDF-5.22 MB]

Select the Download button to view the document

This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed

Details You May Also Like

Details:

Journal Title:

Atmosphere
Personal Author:

Mercer, Andrew ; Bates, Alyssa Victoria, 1988-

Mercer, Andrew ; Bates, Alyssa Victoria, 1988- Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies)

NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) Less -
Description:

Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are a major hazard to life and property for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. Improving tornado outbreak (TO) forecasts will help minimize risks associated with these major events. In this study, we present a methodology for quantifying TO forecasts of varying quality, based on Storm Prediction Center convective outlook forecasts, and provide synoptic and mesoscale composite analyses to identify important features characterizing these events. Synoptic-scale composites from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) are presented for TO forecasts at three forecast quality levels, H-class (high quality), M-class (medium quality), and L-class (low quality), as well as false alarm TO forecasts. H-class and false alarm TO forecasts share many meteorological similarities, particularly in the synoptic-scale, though false alarm events show less well-defined low-level synoptic-scale features. M- and L-class TOs present environments dominated by mesoscale thermodynamic processes (particularly dryline structures), contrasting H-class TOs which are clearly synoptically driven. Simulations of these composites reveal higher instability in M- and L-class TOs that lack key kinematic structures that characterize H-class TOs. The results presented offer important forecast feedback that can help inform future TO predictions and ultimately produce improved TO forecast quality.
Keywords:

[+]

Numerical Weather Forecasting Tornadoes
Source:

Atmosphere 2019, 10(1), 16.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010016
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:6df6b61db42e452fa20e46cab5a7aac0c6fea51ef5ffcf5d41ad942c9fc94207
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25684/noaa_25684_DS1.pdf
File Type:

No Additional Files

More +

Meteorological Differences Characterizing Tornado Outbreak Forecasts of Varying Quality

Details:

Supporting Files

You May Also Like