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Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions
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2018
Source: Nature Communications 9 (2718)
Details:
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Journal Title:Nature Communications
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Personal Author:
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NOAA Program & Office:
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Description:Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy. Here, we discuss a strategy for seasonally forecasting burned area anomalies linking seasonal climate predictions with parsimonious empirical climate-fire models using the standardized precipitation index as the climate predictor for burned area. Assuming near-perfect climate predictions, we obtained skilful predictions of fire activity over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (similar to 60%). Using currently available operational seasonal climate predictions, the skill of fire seasonal forecasts remains high and significant in a large fraction of the burnable area (similar to 40%). These findings reveal an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability using seasonal climate forecasts, which can play a crucial role in fire management strategies and minimise the impact of adverse climate conditions.
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Keywords:
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Source:Nature Communications 9 (2718)
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC6045620
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Funding:
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Rights Information:CC BY
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Compliance:PMC
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